[Jufeng viewpoint]
Thursday’s A-share shock correction. On the disk, real estate, cement and building materials, public utilities, computer equipment, banking, decoration, coal, shipping ports, engineering construction, railways and highways, commercial department stores and other industries led the rise; Energy metal, photovoltaic, battery, wind power, aerospace, chemical fertilizer, semiconductor, power supply equipment, tourism and hotels and other industries led the decline. In terms of subject stocks, digital currency, dexamethasone, electronic ID card, lease and sale rights, civil explosion concept, cross-border payment, hair medical treatment and so on led the rise; Blade battery, solid-state battery, lithium extraction from Salt Lake, fluorine chemical industry, sodium ion battery, aquaculture, covid-19 detection, virtual power plant, power battery recovery, hit battery, energy storage, etc.
[technical review]
The market has entered the third wave of rising market on the weekly line. Now, after the adjustment of the third wave of rising market, the market has formed a medium-term volatile market.
In the short term, the recent external turmoil, the market fell below the lower edge of the range of 34003700 points, and the short-term market fluctuated greatly.
[hot sector]
The real estate sector is higher than the real estate sector, which is higher than the following: 60082with the \ , China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) and other more than 10 stocks rose by the limit.
A strong new district has seen a strong new area: a strong new one from the new and a strong new one: the ‘s Tjk Machinery (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(300823) , Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Co.Ltd(600266) , Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.Ltd(600550) limit.
Digital currency strengthened: Qitian Technology Group Co.Ltd(300061) 20% limit, Shenzhen Emperor Technology Company Limited(300546) , Xgd Inc(300130) , Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) more than 10%, Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Sinodata Co.Ltd(002657) , Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) , Chutian Dragon Co.Ltd(003040) limit.
[highlights inventory]
central bank: increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply of soybeans and oil
The people’s Bank of China issued the opinions on financial support in 2022 and comprehensively promoting the key work of rural revitalization, proposing to increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies such as soybeans and oil. Focusing on promoting the increase of soybean and oil production and the supply of “vegetable basket” products, optimize the allocation of credit resources and continue to increase credit investment.
4 RMB 550 billion invested in days, full power of “water replenishment” at the end of the quarter
On March 30, the people’s Bank of China continued to carry out 150 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and launched 100 billion level investment for four consecutive working days to protect the liquidity at the end of the quarter. In the view of insiders, the people’s Bank of China has significantly increased its open market operation recently, highlighting its attitude of maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity. In this case, the capital is expected to be stable and cross quarter.
Bureau of Statistics: the official manufacturing PMI in March was 49.5%
In March, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.5%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point; The PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point.
[fund trend]
According to the statistics of Dongcai, as of the closing, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a net outflow of funds. On that day, the net outflow of funds from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 40.255 billion yuan, today’s super large single net outflow was 18.939 billion yuan, large single net outflow was 21.316 billion yuan, medium single inflow was 3.069 billion yuan, and small single net inflow was 37.186 billion yuan.
[limit analysis]
Today’s trading limit was 59 and the trading limit was 22;
Today, the number of trading boards in the two cities decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the number of trading boards increased compared with the previous trading day. Daily limit data showed that market sentiment fell today compared with the previous trading day Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) data show that the trading limit stocks in the two cities are mostly concentrated in real estate, xiong’an new area and other sectors. The theme heat of the two cities is poor and the profit-making effect is poor.
[viewpoint strategy]
In early trading, cement and building materials, engineering construction, real estate, traditional Chinese medicine and banking sectors strengthened. The PMI data released in March further stimulated the expectation of “steady growth”; The track stocks with strong performance on Wednesday, such as photovoltaic, battery and wind power, were at the forefront of the decline list. Therefore, the market appears obvious differentiation.
In the afternoon, the gains of real estate and pharmaceutical stocks narrowed, and half of the trading stocks exploded one after another. After the gem index fell below its early low, it finished sideways. The concept of xiong’an new area rose sharply in the afternoon, most of which are individual stocks in real estate, engineering construction and water conservancy construction. After continuous rise in the real estate sector and wide shock for two consecutive days, it is expected that the short-term has reached a high point, and there is a great possibility of shock decline next.
In the future, we still need to pay attention to the performance of technology stocks. Throughout the year, the shares held by national large funds, consumer electronics, apple concept, semiconductor and other sectors fell by more than 22%, which is one of the leading forces of the decline of gem index. If technology stocks cannot stop falling, the market will callback again.
Recently, we have repeatedly stressed that “the current market is not sustainable. The Shanghai index has built a 3000 ~ 3300 point box and the gem has built a 2450 ~ 2750 point box. We should dare to cash in the sudden rise of individual stocks. For individual stocks that have fallen sharply but have not changed their fundamentals, we can buy low. Before the track stocks stop falling, even if the market rebounds, the upward space will not be opened.”
Overall, the current situation in Ukraine, which suppresses the sentiment of A-share investors, and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike have been weakened. Targeted measures taken by many ministries and commissions to stabilize market expectations and boost market confidence will accelerate the construction of the market bottom. In the future, A-Shares will rebound in the form of building a box. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: first, companies with quarterly growth exceeding expectations; Second, it benefits from the steady growth of new and old infrastructure; Third, aviation, airport, tourism and other sectors facing the inflection point in the post epidemic era.
