The dawn of the Russian Ukrainian crisis broke out, and A-Shares and Hong Kong shares rose sharply across the board!
On March 30, the Shanghai stock index rose by nearly 2% and the gem soared by 4%. The total turnover of the two cities was 958.4 billion yuan, and the market sentiment recovered significantly. Northbound funds bought a net unilateral purchase of 12.726 billion yuan throughout the day, a new high in the year.
Private equity funds struggling on the edge of the early warning line and liquidation line also ushered in the dawn. According to the data of private placement network, as of March 30, there were 1624 products with a cumulative net value of less than 0.80 and 1189 products with a cumulative net value of less than 0.75.
if taking 0.8 as the traditional warning line, as of March 25, 4162 products were lower than 0.8 That is, in the past week, the net value of 2538 products has rebounded to above 0.8, and the investment pressure of many private placement has been significantly relieved, especially the pressure of product liquidation
At the current time point, a number of private placement companies are firmly bullish on the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. “If you give up now, it is almost equivalent to the lowest valuation of the MSCI China Index in the past decade: in the fourth quarter of the 2008 financial crisis, or at the end of 2018.” Wu Renhao, manager of Gaoyi asset fund, said in the latest exchange. In addition, a number of 10 billion private placements have also given suggestions on relevant policies.
large-scale net purchases by foreign capital and a big outbreak of real estate and securities companies
On March 29 local time, the White House said that US President Biden would make preparations for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shown obvious signs of easing. Although Russia’s final withdrawal conditions have not been met, the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement between the two sides is rising.
This means that the dark cloud over the stock market has finally dissipated. On March 30, A-Shares and Hong Kong shares rose sharply across the board. Among them, the Shanghai stock index rose by nearly 2% and the gem rose by 4%. The total turnover of the two cities was 958.4 billion yuan, and the market sentiment recovered significantly.
In particular, a rare large net purchase by foreign capital. According to the data, the northbound funds showed a unilateral net inflow throughout the day, accelerated the entry in the afternoon, and bought a net of RMB 12.726 billion throughout the day. The single day net purchase reached a new high in the year, and it was also the second time this year that the net purchase exceeded RMB 10 billion. Among them, the net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 5.352 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 6.373 billion yuan.
On the disk, real estate stocks ushered in a big outbreak, and Shenwan real estate sector rose 5.68% Nearly 30 shares, including Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) , Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , Bright Real Estate Group Co.Limited(600708) , Guangdong Shirong Zhaoye Co.Ltd(002016) , Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) and Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) rose by 8.58%. As the leader of real estate, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) has rebounded by 30% from the lowest point, and the market value has returned to 220.6 billion yuan.
Hong Kong and real estate stocks soared across the board. Among them, real estate stocks such as sunshine 100, Greenland Hong Kong, rongchuang China, WTO group and times China Holdings all increased by more than 20% in a single day, while China Jinmao, Longguang group, Hejing Taifu and jiazhaoye all increased by more than 13%.
Upstream and downstream industrial chains related to real estate, such as Shenwan building materials, rose 4.91%, including cement, decoration, furniture, hardware waterproof materials, etc., and several stocks such as Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Sichuan Golden Summit (Group) Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(600678) etc. rose by the limit.
In addition, heavyweight sectors such as food and beverage, household appliances and non bank finance rose sharply one after another. 35 Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) , Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) and other brokerage stocks rose by the limit.
On March 16, the finance committee meeting responded to the concerns of the market one by one, and the market rebounded from extreme pessimism. According to the judgment of many institutions, the end of the policy has emerged.
Zheng Xiaoqiu, general manager of Mingshi partnership fund, said that in terms of policy, we should more actively and properly promote the risk resolution of the real estate market and some real estate enterprises, and issue more powerful and effective policy support through multi sectoral cooperation, including but not limited to supporting policies to encourage high-quality enterprises to collect and acquire, the implementation of the principle of territorial management responsibility, urban implementation and optimization of pre-sale fund supervision policies, so as to truly reverse the market expectations of the real estate industry.
more than 2500 products, the net value rebounded to above 0.8
It is worth noting that private equity funds struggling on the edge of the early warning line and liquidation line have also ushered in the dawn. According to the data of private placement network, as of March 30, there were 2166 products with a cumulative net value of less than 0.85, 1624 products with a cumulative net value of less than 0.80 and 1189 products with a cumulative net value of less than 0.75.
and just last week, the private placement industry was under great pressure. There are 5842 products with cumulative net worth less than 0.85, 4162 products with cumulative net worth less than 0.8 yuan and 2949 products with cumulative net worth less than 0.75 yuan
Some people in the industry said that when the net value of private placement products is lower than 0.8, the early warning line is triggered. It is generally agreed that the position must be reduced to less than 50% within 10 working days, and the position can only be reduced during the period, and the position can not be increased until it is higher than the early warning line.
Taking 0.8 as the traditional warning line, the net value of 2538 products has rebounded to above 0.8 in the past week. This has also significantly alleviated the investment pressure of many private placement, especially the pressure of product liquidation. After private placement products touch the warning line, they often fall by another 10%. Many products will be passively liquidated, and private placement managers and investors will completely miss the opportunity of market rebound.
“Since the beginning of the year, the Fed’s interest rate hike, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, repeated epidemics, economic downturn and other factors have led to a decline in capital risk appetite. There has been a relatively large correction in the market, and investors and fund managers have borne great pressure on net value fluctuation. However, with the gradual clarification of internal and external disturbance factors, the market has entered the bottom area. When in the bottom area of the market, we must cherish it.” Tang Guangying, manager of Shanghai Chunda asset fund, told reporters.
10 billion private placement is firmly bullish on a shares, and the most difficult time has passed
At the current time point, a number of private placement companies are firmly bullish on the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets.
Wu Renhao, manager of Gaoyi asset fund, also said in the latest exchange that from the perspective of valuation, due to the superposition of various negative factors since the beginning of the year, there has been an extreme systematic decline in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, mainly manifested in the rapid valuation contraction. If we give up now, it is almost equivalent to the lowest valuation of MSCI China Index in the past decade: in the fourth quarter of the 2008 financial crisis, or at the end of 2018.
“I am often asked, what is the winner in 2022? In such a year with complex fundamentals, what is the winner still needs to be studied.
The negative hand is very clear, which is to give up at the current low point where multiple pressures erupt synchronously and investor confidence is extremely fragile. ” Wu Renhao said.
Wang Chen, CEO of Jiukun investment, said that we have been firmly optimistic about the future development prospects of China’s capital market for a long time, and continue to take practical actions to expand long-term equity investment in the A-share market.
Confidence in the long-term improvement of A-Shares comes from two points. From the asset side, as China’s economy turns to high-quality development, high-quality enterprises in various industries, especially “specialized, refined, special and new” enterprises, can continue to provide more diversified high-quality bottom assets for a shares. From the capital side, the wealth of Chinese residents will be further transferred to equity assets, and there will be continuous capital inflow in the A-share market as a whole. The rapid growth of the scale of the asset management industry in the past two years proves this general trend.
Wang Chen said, “at the same time, we are also actively self purchasing. On the basis of having purchased 100 million yuan of its products in February, we have also promised to invest 10 million yuan of its funds every month in the next three years, accumulating 360 million yuan, and practice the long-term and scientific investment concept with Jiukun investors.”
Xingshi investment also said that the most difficult time has passed, and it is expected that market sentiment will continue to improve and risk appetite will return to normal. On the one hand, the epidemic prevention and control is still continuing, and this round of epidemic may peak soon. Once the epidemic pressure decreases periodically, the force and effect of the steady growth policy will be better than expected.
In addition, in terms of policy, Wang Chen suggested that, on the one hand, we should encourage the development of more index funds and quantitative index enhancement funds to expand the stable Bull Power of a shares. From the experience of overseas markets, index funds are an important type of long-term bull power in the market, and also provide important asset allocation tools for many long-term investors, including pension funds and sovereign funds.
On the other hand, introduce and improve the market maker system to increase the effective depth and toughness of the market. China should develop a multi-level capital market. It is suggested to develop and improve the market maker mechanism of the stock market. Designing a reasonable market maker system can not only improve liquidity and maintain trading activity, but also stabilize market fluctuations, promote price discovery, cultivate professional investors and expand the team of institutional investors.
