Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, the stock index maintained shock consolidation at the beginning of trading, and there was a wave of rise in the stock index near noon; In the afternoon, the stock index further made an upward attack, showing a pulsed upward pattern. The resilience of the gem index and Shenzhen composite index was significantly stronger than that of the Shanghai index.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) above, the index ended its two-day hesitation and started the rebound mode again with a bare head and bare feet on Wednesday. In the short term, as long as the main line of real estate is not muted, the market is more likely to continue to rebound . However, as it takes time to reverse the downward trend of the middle line, the future stage may be similar to the repeated concussion and sawing in the second half of 2018. Pay attention to the rhythm and grasp the main line in operation. From the perspective of operation, the winning rate is greater.
In addition, Dongguan securities mentioned that after a short correction of the Shanghai stock index on Wednesday, it started a strong rise, and individual stocks showed a moderate and large-scale general rise trend, with the rise limit of nearly 100 individual stocks. In particular, it is noted that northbound capital has a significant net inflow of 12.7 billion yuan, a new high since November 2021, highlighting the current positive attitude of foreign capital to long A-Shares . With the gradual digestion of external disturbance factors, it is expected that the market will gradually stabilize and rebound, and pay attention to the change of volume and energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to industries such as finance, building materials, steel, electrical equipment and TMT.
Technically speaking, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that on Wednesday, the A-share market opened higher and rose sharply, and the overnight external market rose sharply, which boosted the general rise of the Asia Pacific market in the morning. The stock indexes of the two cities jumped higher in the morning, and the whole line of mainstream industries such as real estate, new energy, wine making and finance rose, driving the stock index to rise unilaterally. The Shanghai index broke through 3250 points in one fell swoop, and the defense industries such as chemical fertilizer, agriculture and coal fell slightly, The trading volume of the two cities was 950 billion yuan, an increase over the previous day.
In terms of the future market, the agency further analyzed that currently the stock index is still in the stage of double bottoming and building the bottom. Whether it can rise again in the future still depends on strong policies and the continuous strength of mainstream industries . It is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to rise slightly in the short term, and the gem is more likely to rebound slightly in the short term. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the investment opportunities in new energy, real estate, medical treatment, finance and other industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
It is worth mentioning that China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the long-term inflow trend of foreign capital remained unchanged . In the medium and long term, the higher real interest rate difference between China and the United States, the significant improvement of RMB risk aversion attribute, the superposition of foreign capital is still low allocation of a shares, and the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares is still a long-term trend.
First, the real interest rate difference between China and the United States is still at a high level, supporting the inflow of funds going north . By the end of February, the real interest rate difference between China and the United States was 2.67%, which is at the quantile level of 91.6% since 2003. Even if the subsequent fed interest rate hike drives the real interest rate upward, the real interest rate difference between China and the United States may remain high because China’s inflation pressure is much lower than that of the United States.
Second, since this year, the hedging attribute of RMB has been greatly enhanced, and the attraction of RMB assets has increased . Since this year, as of March 23, only the US dollar and RMB have appreciated in the world’s major currencies. The appreciation of RMB is 0.31%, which is significantly higher than the exchange rate of other currencies such as yen and euro against the US dollar. The risk aversion attribute of RMB has been greatly enhanced. In the troubled times around the world, the RMB has reflected the risk aversion attribute, which also shows the improvement of the strategic position of RMB assets in the global capital market.
Third, China’s financial opening-up is further deepened, it is independent of US stocks, and the proportion of foreign capital in A-Shares is still low. The long-term logic of future global capital plus A-Shares remains unchanged .
Macroscopically, Wanlian Securities believes that looking forward to April, the impact of overseas fluctuations on the A-share market is expected to be weakened . It is expected that the macro liquidity will remain stable, the liquidity of the A-share market will be worry free, and the pressure of foreign capital outflow will be reduced. With the warming of market expectations, risk appetite is expected to improve, and pay attention to the sectors with upward prosperity.
In terms of operation strategy, the organization further put forward suggestions, 1) some companies have disclosed the performance from January to February, the performance of relevant sectors of “steady growth” is good, and the main line allocation idea continues; 2) With the recovery of market sentiment, the prosperity of the growth sector rebounded, and attention was paid to the rebound opportunities in semiconductor, artificial intelligence, new materials, cloud computing and other fields .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that suggested to carry out long-term dislocation configuration around three main lines : 1) the short-term price of the steady growth chain is still high, and with the continuation of marginal easing of real estate regulation, we can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of the real estate chain, banks and new and old infrastructure.
2) in the medium and short term, we can continue to participate in the opportunities related to the main line of medicine and price increase (planting industry / chemical fertilizer / dairy products). After the inflection point of the epidemic, we can pay more attention to the travel chain (Airport / hotel / catering, etc.).
3) for the growth style, it is still optimistic about the valuation market in the third stage in the medium and long term. It is suggested to adjust the industries with high prosperity and valuation diffusion, such as power equipment, electronics, national defense and military industry, computer and so on.
It is expected that the stock market outside Guangdong will continue to be hedged under China in July and it is expected that the stock market outside Guangdong will continue to be hedged under China. The change of profit expectation will lead to the differentiation of the market. It is suggested that investors should pay more attention to individual stocks than index, focus on the layout of performance certainty and policy power end, focus on two main lines .
first, the performance window is approaching. Pay attention to the pre hi section of the first quarterly report . April will usher in a performance intensive disclosure period, and the market will return to the verification period of performance. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the performance certainty of basic chemical industry, electronics, medical biology, national defense and military industry is relatively stronger. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the performance of the first quarterly report in advance in combination with the matching degree of valuation.
second, grasp the main line of policy development . As the main policy line, steady growth will remain the main market in the long run. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to new and old infrastructure and investment opportunities in the consumer industry to expand domestic demand. In addition, the recent intensive release of policies in energy, medicine and other industries is expected to usher in rapid development opportunities in relevant sectors. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality target investment opportunities in policy beneficiary sectors.
