The trend of transportation sector rebounded: from the beginning of 2022 to March 29, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 16.32%, and Shenwan transportation sector fell by 8.48% as a whole, ranking 8th among 28 Shenwan industries, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.84 percentage points. Compared with 2021, the performance rebounded significantly and the industry ranking rose significantly.
Aviation: the industry is in the left configuration opportunity. We believe that the epidemic development situation is still the most important factor for the further recovery of air transportation and the turnaround of most airlines. The impact degree and scope of this round of Omicron epidemic are higher than the local epidemic in 2021, and the impact on the air transportation industry is expected to continue until the second quarter. If the epidemic continues and repeats in 2022, we believe that the focus of the air transportation industry will still focus on the demand repair of Chinese routes and the impact of oil price, exchange rate and other influencing factors on the company’s performance; If the epidemic situation continues to improve, the focus of the air transport industry will turn to the resumption of international routes and the ticket price elasticity caused by short-term supply exceeding demand, and the targets with large rebound space can be arranged in advance.
Airport: focus on capacity release when the epidemic continues. China’s major hub airports are in the period of continuous capacity expansion. Under the absolute protection of policies and regions in the core region, the characteristics of core assets are obvious, and the epidemic continues to repeat, we believe that the airport performance will still rely on the recovery of Chinese routes, and pay attention to the hub airports with a high proportion in China; If the epidemic continues to improve, international route control is expected to be liberalized. It is suggested to pay attention to airports with better repair of international routes and airports with large growth space for non aviation revenue.
Logistics: the express sub industry has ushered in an inflection point. We believe that under the continuous influence of the policy, the healthy development and benign competition of the logistics industry have become regulatory requirements and industry consensus. The competition in the express sector has shifted from a single price war to a comprehensive competition of quality and ability, superimposed with the upward expectation of express unit price, and the industry is expected to realize the double improvement of performance and valuation.
Investment suggestion: in the period of normalized epidemic prevention and control, China’s demand has gradually warmed up, and some sub sector companies have basically got rid of the impact of the epidemic. In the long run, the basis for the total transportation volume of the transportation industry to maintain growth still exists, so we give the industry a “optimistic” rating. Looking forward to the year, the aviation sector: under the current epidemic prevention and control policy, there is great uncertainty about the resumption of international routes. If the epidemic continues to affect, we suggest to refer to foreign conditions and pay attention to airlines with excellent cost control and focusing on the medium and short haul market, such as Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) ; If the epidemic situation improves significantly, we suggest paying attention to Air China Limited(601111) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) and China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) . Airport sector: we suggest paying attention to the long-term growth value of hub airports, and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) . Logistics sector: benefiting from the good resumption progress, the logistics industry continues to be in a high boom period. At present, China’s express delivery industry is in a period of giant competition. We suggest paying attention to S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) with obvious advantages in the field of time sensitive parts and high brand reputation, as well as Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , which has a stable market share and benefits from the rise of unit price.
Risk tips: policy risk, macroeconomic risk, oil price, exchange rate and other risks, security risk, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
