Electric vehicles mainly use electric energy and increase the use of copper in an all-round way. Electric vehicles mainly use electric energy, so the increase in copper consumption mainly comes from electrical systems such as power batteries, high-voltage harnesses and motors. In addition, the construction of charging piles will also promote the demand for copper. In order to improve efficiency and power safety, new energy vehicles also put forward higher requirements for the performance of copper materials. Copper materials such as lithium battery copper foil, electromagnetic flat wire, high-voltage harness and connector will usher in a broader market space.
The single vehicle consumption of copper foil for pure electric vehicles is 25.3-38.0kg, and that for plug-in electric hybrid vehicles is 6.2-9.3kg. 6. It helps to lighten the power density of the current copper foil and improve the battery life μ M copper foil is the mainstream of the industry and will gradually switch to 4 in the future μ m。 The usage of lithium copper foil for each pure electric vehicle is about 25.3-38.0kg, and the corresponding value is about 34993569 yuan; The usage of lithium copper foil for each plug-in hybrid car is about 6.2-9.3kg, and the corresponding value is about 860878 yuan. It is estimated that the market scale of lithium copper foil for power battery will reach 34.5 billion yuan in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 34%.
The copper consumption of high-voltage harness and low-voltage harness of electric vehicles is 23 kg and 5 kg respectively. The amount of copper used in the low-voltage harness of electric vehicles is 5 kg more than that of fuel vehicles, up to 23 kg. The high-voltage harness of electric vehicle requires high conductivity. It is expected that the high-voltage system of electric vehicle will adopt advanced copper alloy in the future. It is estimated that by 2025, the total market scale of copper wire harness materials for electric vehicles in China will reach 18.8 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30%.
The motor copper consumption of each pure electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid car is 12.3kg and 8.9kg respectively. The flat wire motor increases the demand for oxygen free copper rod. The motor is the power source of new energy vehicles. The electromagnetic coil is made of copper rod. The copper consumption of each pure electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid car is 12.3kg and 8.9kg respectively. With the flat wire motor gradually replacing the round wire motor, by 2025, the market scale of oxygen free copper rod will be gradually expanded to 6.8 billion yuan, and the market scale of low oxygen copper rod will be gradually reduced to 1.2 billion yuan. It is estimated that in 2025, the market scale of copper rod for electric vehicle motor will total 8 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 32%. Each AC charging pile uses 2-8kg copper and DC charging pile uses 60kg copper. Charging pile is a device for charging new energy electric vehicles, which increases the copper consumption of electric vehicles. In order to improve the charging efficiency, the charging pile is developing towards high-voltage fast charging. Many Chinese car enterprises are expected to follow up 800V high-voltage fast charging in 2022, and advanced copper materials are expected to be more widely used. It is estimated that by 2025, the market scale of copper for electric vehicle charging pile in China will reach 3.1 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 36%.
To sum up, new energy vehicles will increase the use of copper in an all-round way. Under the policy background of low-carbon transformation of means of transport and adjustment of energy structure, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to maintain a high growth rate, and the demand for copper is also increasing day by day. With the continuous improvement of the sales volume and penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China, it is estimated that the scale of China's copper market for electric vehicles will reach 64.4 billion yuan in 2025. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the market scale of the increase in copper demand caused by vehicle electrification will reach 50.9 billion yuan.
It is suggested to pay attention to China's leading copper processing enterprises, such as Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) ( Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) , not rated), Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) ( Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) , not rated), etc.
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The penetration rate of flat wire motor of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The development trend of high-voltage harness and high-voltage charging of new energy vehicles is less than expected. The measurement of market capacity is based on many assumptions, and there is a risk that the assumptions are not as good as expected, which will affect the measurement results.
