\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 985 Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) )
Event: on March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2021 was 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%; The operating revenue was 64.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.27%; The basic earnings per share was 2.04 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%.
The performance of 2021q4 increased significantly. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.78%; Up 1.15% month on month.
In 2021, the company’s coal volume and price rose simultaneously. According to the announcement, in 2021, the company achieved a commercial coal output of 225755 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.12%, and a commercial coal sales volume of 197588 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.54%. We estimate that the comprehensive selling price per ton of coal is 805.8 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, the sales cost per ton of coal is 476.5 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, the gross profit per ton of coal is 329.3 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, and the gross profit margin of coal business is 40.86%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 percentage points. In 2021, the company’s Xinhu coal mine (3 million tons / year) will be put into operation. The mine is expected to continue to contribute to the output increment in 2022. Considering that the coking coal price center is still expected to move up, the company’s coal business profit is expected to continue to move up in 2022. In addition, with the approval of taohutu mine, the company has broad space for long-term growth of coal production capacity.
The prices of chemical products are rising in an all-round way, and the chemical production capacity is expected to expand. In 2021, the company produced 4.0964 million tons of coke, a year-on-year decrease of 0.66%, and sold 4.0758 million tons of coke. The average sales price was 264572 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 49.36%. In 2021, the company produced 342700 tons of methanol, a year-on-year decrease of 9.86%, and sold 344400 tons of methanol, a year-on-year decrease of 10.27%. The average sales price was 225933 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 43.49%. Due to the downward price of chemicals, the gross profit margin of coal chemical business was 39.98%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous year. According to the announcement, the company’s comprehensive utilization of coke oven gas to methanol project (500000 tons / year) will be completed and put into operation in June 2022, and the company’s methanol production capacity is expected to expand.
The proposed cash dividend is 36.33% and the dividend yield is 4.66%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 7 per 10 shares to all shareholders, and a cash dividend of RMB 1.737 billion (including tax), accounting for 36.33% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in the current year. Based on the stock price on March 30, 2022, the dividend rate is 4.66%.
Investment suggestion: according to the current coal price situation, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.434 billion yuan, 7.022 billion yuan and 7.532 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.59/2.83/3.04 respectively, and PE of the share price on March 30, 2022 of 6 times, 5 times and 5 times respectively. The company has the growth ability that is relatively scarce in the current sector, and is expected to obtain higher valuation and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the coal price fell more than expected, the profit of the newly put into production capacity was less than expected, and the construction progress of the newly approved capacity was slower than expected.
