\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 499 Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) )
Events
The company released its 2021 annual report on the evening of March 30, and achieved a revenue of 9.797 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 34.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 284.60%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 952 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 940534%; EPS is 0.53 yuan.
Commentary
The performance is in line with expectations, and the business of machinery + lithium battery + cathode is advancing steadily. In 21 years, the production and sales of press, polishing machine and kiln products in the company’s machinery business increased by more than 80%, 66% and 30% year-on-year. Keda electromechanical and Yongxing special steel continued to make efforts in the field of foamed ceramic kiln, and the amount of orders received in the cross domain business of kiln products reached 150 million yuan. In 21 years, Lanke lithium produced about 22700 tons of lithium carbonate and sold about 19200 tons. The company recognized 444 million yuan of investment income with 43.58% equity participation. The negative pole business of the company has formed an integrated capacity layout of “50000 T / a forged coke – 30000 T / a graphitization – 10000 t / a artificial graphite – 1000 t / a silicon carbon negative pole”. The 50000 T / a graphitized negative pole has been approved and is expected to start construction in the second half of the year.
Set an increase, consolidate the main machinery industry and consolidate the leading position. The company will raise no more than 2.079 billion yuan to build three major projects and make-up flow. Among them, the intelligent manufacturing base project of building materials and lithium battery equipment plans to build an annual output of 1.6145 million parts and 85 production lines of lithium material roller kilns. The construction period of the project is 36 months and the total investment is 1.625 billion yuan; The high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing digital factory project plans to build an annual output of 300 production lines, with a construction period of 20 months and a total investment of 800 million yuan; The technological transformation project of the global advanced manufacturing center of building materials machinery plans to add 650 sets of intelligent building materials machinery. The construction period of the project is 36 months, with a total investment of 106 million yuan.
Lanke has a high degree of achievement and high performance flexibility. Volume: it is estimated that the output of lithium carbonate in 22-23 years will be 35000 tons and 40000 tons respectively, the price: the average price of lithium in 22-23 years will be 400000 yuan / ton and 300000 yuan / ton, and the cost: the full cost including tax will be 37000 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the investment income contributed by Lanke lithium industry in 22-23 years will be 4.1 billion and 3.4 billion yuan respectively, and the performance will enter the explosive period. Qinghai has accelerated the construction of a world-class Salt Lake production base with a planned production capacity of about 100000 tons. Lanke lithium has great possibility of subsequent production expansion and has growth potential in the medium and long term.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
It is estimated that the lithium price will remain high in 22-23 years, and the company’s performance will increase strongly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 5.955 billion yuan, 5.991 billion yuan and 6.154 billion yuan respectively (up 60% and 34% in 22-23 years), corresponding to EPS of 3.15 yuan, 3.17 yuan and 3.26 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 6.4 times, 6.3 times and 6.1 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of lithium salt price trend in the later stage increases; The growth rate of lithium salt demand was lower than expected.
