\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event: on the evening of March 30, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter will be RMB 1.783-1.970 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90% – 110%; The non net profit deducted was RMB 1.791-1.979 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90% – 110%.
The performance forecast exceeded expectations and the acting HPV vaccine performed well. According to the performance forecast, the median net profit attributable to the parent company of Q1 company in 2022 is expected to be 1.876 billion yuan (year-on-year + 100%), and the median net profit deducted from non net profit is 1.885 billion yuan (year-on-year + 100%). According to the data of the Chinese people’s Procuratorate, as of March 27, the company issued 7 batches of 4-valent HPV vaccine and 18 batches of 9-valent HPV vaccine on behalf of MSD (77 batches were issued in 2021), with a total of about 5-6 million copies issued. Considering that the supply of HPV vaccine terminal vaccination in China is still in short supply, we believe that the company’s agent HPV vaccine is expected to continue to increase rapidly.
The recombinant covid-19 vaccine has been approved for sequential vaccination in China and is expected to continue to increase its performance. On February 19, the company’s recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine was approved for sequential immunization after two doses of inactivated vaccine. At present, the company has achieved the supply of more than 20 provinces such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. However, due to the spot outbreak of covid-19 in China in March, we expect that the profit contribution of covid-19 vaccine in the first quarter is less, and it is expected to accelerate the volume from the second quarter. In addition, the company’s recombinant covid-19 vaccine has been approved for emergency use in Indonesia, Colombia and other places. At the same time, it is actively promoting who certification to seek a larger overseas market.
The self-developed varieties have entered the cashing period, and the preventive micro card is expected to start rapid and large-scale production in 22 years. Recently, the company’s self-developed pipeline has made a lot of progress. 1) the production application of 23 valent pneumonia polysaccharide vaccine has been accepted; 2) The production of human diploid crazy vaccine and tetravalent influenza vaccine is expected to be reported in the first half of 22 years, and both have the potential to become large consumer varieties; 2) 15 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine and bivalent dysentery conjugate vaccine are in phase III clinical, and the company has rich reserves of independent R & D projects. At the same time, the company’s newly approved preventive micro card vaccine in 21 years is orderly promoting the bidding and access work around the country, and is expected to start rapid and large-scale production in 22 years. The preventive microcard vaccine has potential demand for patients infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis but not developing tuberculosis. The company is a global leader in progress. Its competitor GSK is currently in clinical phase II and is expected to enjoy the market exclusively in 2-3 years. Previously, the company’s EC test for tuberculosis screening has been approved. With the approval of micro card, the tuberculosis product matrix will gradually start to work. Considering that the net interest rate of self-produced products is about 35%, it is expected to make a great contribution to the company’s profits.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering that the company’s agent vaccine business is expected to accelerate, we raised the profit forecast for 20222023 (out of caution, we did not consider covid-19 vaccine increment in the profit forecast). It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 20212023 will be RMB 21.662 billion, 32.063 billion and 37.200 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42.60%, 48.01% and 16.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.690 billion yuan, 7.274 billion yuan and 9.023 billion yuan (the predicted value before 20222023 was 6.029 billion yuan and 7.679 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 42.05%, 55.11% and 24.05%,. In 2022, the company’s agent 4-price and 9-price HPV vaccines will continue to be sold in large quantities, and the independent varieties are expected to be realized gradually, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning event: the risk that the resumption of production of AC Hib vaccine is less than expected, and the sales of HPV vaccine series is less than expected. The risk that the products under development are not approved as expected, and the product quality risk of the same industry.
