\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 399 Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) )
Events
The company released its 2021 annual report on the evening of March 30, and achieved a revenue of 7.414 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 18.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 783 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.02%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 685 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.33%; EPS is 0.4 yuan.
Commentary
Q4 performance was slightly lower than expected. Q4 company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 98 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.22%, mainly due to the influence of steel production restriction + rising raw material prices, and the performance was slightly lower than expected. In 21 years, the company achieved steel output of 691500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.76%; The steel output was 550600 tons, an increase of 9.12% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of superalloys was 6000 tons, the average sales price was 217000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, the gross profit margin was 42.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.27 PCTs; The sales volume of stainless steel was 74900 tons, and the average sales price was 18600 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 8.68%. In 22 years, the company plans to achieve steel output of 680000740000 tons and steel output of 54 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 0000 tons, including 75 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 00 tons of "three high and one special" core products.
Promote the technical transformation project of superalloy and continue to expand production capacity. In 22-23 years, the company plans to invest 1.076 billion yuan to build a technical transformation project, which mainly includes the improvement of military product production capacity, the construction of one 12 ton vacuum induction furnace (imported), three 12 ton vacuum consumable furnaces (imported) and corresponding auxiliary facilities, so as to increase the production capacity of induction steel by 4800 tons / year and the production capacity of consumable steel by 5400 tons / year; The production capacity of the rolling line and cooling bed area of the continuous rolling plant is increased by about 200000 tons / year; 12 protective atmosphere electroslag furnaces will be built to increase the capacity of electroslag steel by 28800 tons / year. It is expected that the capacity increment of technical transformation projects in 23-24 years will begin to reflect.
Look forward to the growth space of high-temperature alloy and old brand. The high-temperature alloy produced by the company accounts for more than 80% of the aerospace market, and the ultra-high strength steel accounts for 95%. The future main demand for superalloys comes from the large volume of military products and domestic aircraft during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The characteristics of high industrial technical barriers and high production capacity concentration make the company's products have higher added value and greater performance flexibility. The domestic aircraft C919 was officially mass produced in 21 years. According to the increment of military and civil aviation, the demand for Superalloy in 25 years was 31000 tons, with an annual growth rate of 3.1%.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
Due to the slow progress of construction projects and the rise of raw material prices, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 790 million yuan, 1066 million yuan and 1386 million yuan respectively (30% and 22% reduction in 22-23 years), and the EPS will be 0.4 yuan, 0.54 yuan and 0.7 yuan respectively, corresponding to 37 times, 27 times and 21 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The output release of high-end products did not meet expectations; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Demand growth did not meet expectations.
