\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 618 Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) )
The company announced 21fy annual report that 21fy’s revenue was 500.6 billion, yoy + 25.1% (compared with 19fycagr + 21.6%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.38 billion, yoy + 6.5% (compared with 19fycagr + 12.6%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 7.03 billion, yoy-1.9% (compared with 19fycagr + 10.0%). The single 21q4 income is 151.1 billion, yoy + 14.3% (compared with 19q4cagr + 16.9%), the net profit attributable to the parent is 2.25 billion, yoy-31.0% (compared with 19q4cagr-6.4%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent is 1.64 billion, yoy-44.8% (compared with 19q4cagr-11.5%). Revenue continued to grow rapidly, basically in line with our expectations.
The new signing continued to grow steadily, the growth rate of infrastructure and other businesses was steady, and the overall profit margin fell slightly
By business, the company’s 21fy project contracting / real estate development / equipment manufacturing / resource development revenue is 4623 / 214 / 116 / 6.7 billion respectively, yoy respectively + 27.0% / – 11.2% / + 5.1% / + 52.1% (compared with 19fy revenue CAGR respectively + 21.8% / 3.6% / 26.8% / 13.4%). The newly signed contract amount of 21fy company is 1205 billion, yoy + 18.2% (compared with the newly signed CAGR of 19fy is + 23.7%), of which the overseas project contract amount is 34.7 billion, yoy + 8.95% (compared with 19fycagr-9.5%). The newly signed project contracting business contract amount of 21fy company is 116088 billion, yoy + 18.6% (compared with the newly signed CAGR of 19fy is + 24.4%), of which metallurgy / non metallurgy are yoy + 10.0% / 20.1% to 1578 / 1003 billion respectively, accounting for 13.6% / 86.4% of the newly signed project contract amount respectively. Project contracts of more than 50 million yuan account for 96.6% of the total project contracts, of which housing construction / Infrastructure / metallurgy / other contracts account for 611.8/244.4/140.4/124.4 billion respectively, yoy + 15.9% / 30.7% / 9.7% / 25.8% respectively (CAGR + 28.7% / 30.9% / 12.4% / 18.4% respectively compared with 19fy), housing construction contracts account for 54.6%, yoy-1.5pct, and the contract structure continues to be optimized. The newly signed contract amount of 21q4 company is 327.9 billion, yoy + 2.9% (compared with the newly signed cagr-2.2% in 19q4), of which the newly signed project contract amount is 317.4 billion, yoy + 4.8% (compared with the newly signed cagr-10.5% in 19q4). The newly signed contract value of 22m1-2 company is 208.6 billion, yoy + 14.6%. The overall growth of new contracts continued to be stable.
21fy comprehensive gross profit margin / engineering contracting / real estate development / equipment manufacturing / resource development gross profit margin are 10.6% / 9.2% / 23.5% / 15.1% / 42.7% respectively, yoy-0.7 / – 1.0 / + 2.8 / + 1.2 / + 14.4pct respectively. During 21fy, the expense rate decreased by 0.8pct to 6.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 0.3pct to 1.7% (mainly due to the increase of impairment scale and minority shareholders’ profit and loss, the impairment of 21fy was yoy + 45.1% to 5.3 billion, and the minority shareholders’ profit and loss was yoy + 112.6% to 3.2 billion).
The asset structure was continuously optimized and the turnover of the two funds was accelerated
At the end of 21fy, the company’s asset liability ratio was 72.1%, basically the same as that of 20fy; The interest bearing debt ratio was 15.3%, with a decrease of 3.2pct; The turnover days of two funds (inventory + contract assets + accounts receivable) continued to accelerate. The turnover days of two funds in 21fy was 137 days, a year-on-year decrease of 64 days (88 days compared with 19fy). 21fy net operating cash flow increased by 10.4 billion to 17.6 billion, and net investment cash flow increased by 280 million to 12.6 billion.
Optimistic about the development prospect of the company under the background of carbon neutralization and high resource prices, and maintain the “buy” rating
Based on more cautious impairment estimation and cost pressure, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 10.2/117/13.5 billion (slightly lower than the previous forecast in 22 / 23 years, with the previous value of 11.1/12.6 billion yuan respectively), and the corresponding yoy will be 22% / 15% / 15% respectively. Considering the company’s advantages as a leader in metallurgical engineering, it is recognized as the company’s 22-year 10x target PE, with the corresponding target price of 4.92 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than expected, the risk of sharp fluctuations in metal prices, the demand for high nickel batteries is lower than expected, the risk of accidents in the operation of mineral projects, and geopolitical risk
