\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released an annual report. In 2021, the revenue was 34.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.1%, with a weighted average roe of 10.5% 67%, year-on-year + 0.07pct. Q421’s revenue was 7.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.7% and a month on month increase of – 16.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.6% and a month on month increase of – 19.6%. Revenue proportion: investment banking 1.3%, wealth management 39.8%, trading and institutions 20.0%, investment management 37.0%, others 1.9%. Revenue growth rate: Investment Banking – 34.3%, wealth management + 12.0%, trading and institutions + 34.7%, investment management + 21.3%, others – 18.0%.
Performance attribution: the transaction volume of [wealth management] agent stock base was 21.31 trillion, a year-on-year increase of + 22.9%, accounting for 3.85% of the market, a year-on-year increase of -0.08pct; At the end of the year, the scale of non monetary funds was 78.4 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry; At the end of the year, the balance of the two financial institutions was 94.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5%, accounting for 5.13% of the city, a year-on-year increase of -0.08pct. [transactions and institutions] equity investment and derivative investment have achieved good investment returns, the duration, leverage and scale of bond investment are properly controlled, and the investment performance is good. [investment management] at the end of the year, the asset management scale of GF was 493244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66.3%; As of March 30, Guangfa Fund (holding 54.53%) and e fund (holding 22.65%) had a non monetary fund management scale of 680591 billion yuan and 119709 billion yuan, ranking third and first in the industry respectively. Their net profits in 2021 were 2.607 billion yuan and 4.535 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.9% and + 64.9% respectively.
Investment banking risk clearing and asset management contribution flexibility: investment banking is one of the businesses with historical advantages of the company. In 2019 before the company was punished, the IPO underwriting amount ranked fifth in the industry, the equity underwriting amount ranked ninth in the industry, the corporate bond underwriting amount ranked third in the industry, and the corporate bond underwriting amount ranked 12th in the industry. In 2021, the qualification of the company’s sponsor and bond underwriting business has been restored, and the recovery of investment banking business may contribute significant performance increment to the company. The operating profit of the investment management business segment dominated by GF asset management, GF fund and e fund accounted for 41.3%, which strongly supported the performance growth.
Investment suggestion: the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is equivalent to 113% of our previous forecast, exceeding expectations. The company’s investment management business performed well. Based on this, we raised the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 24. Company 2022ep / B1 20x, which is near the average value in recent five years. Considering the great growth potential of investment banks and asset management, it maintains “Buy-A”.
Risk tips: the capital market scene is declining, policy risks, and the development of investment banking business is not as expected.
