Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 128.30% year-on-year, and the dividend proportion reached 60.87%. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 151991 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.30%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 16.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.30%; The gross profit margin was 29.38%, a year-on-year increase of 16.16 percentage points; The net profit margin was 10.70%, a year-on-year increase of 7.38 percentage points, EPS was 3.34 yuan, and EPS after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 3.33 yuan. The distribution plan is to distribute cash of 1.60 yuan (including tax) per share and special cash dividend of 0.40 yuan / share (including tax), with a total cash dividend of 2.00 yuan / share (including tax). The dividend ratio is 60.87% and 5.27% calculated according to the closing price on the reporting date. Q4 company achieved revenue and net profit attributable to its parent company of 46.955 billion yuan and 4.727 billion yuan respectively, with a month on month increase of 18.41% and a decrease of 13.89% respectively, and EPS of 0.97 yuan in a single quarter. Q4 net profit decreased month on month, mainly due to the company’s provision of 1.669 billion yuan of asset impairment loss and credit impairment loss.
In 2021, the coal business benefited from the rise of coal price and the profit increased significantly: in 2021, the revenue and gross profit contributed by the company’s coal sector were 83.797 billion yuan and 36.771 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 55.13% and 82.34% of the company’s revenue and gross profit respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.66% and 51.36% respectively. The profit growth of the coal sector comes from the substantial increase of coal price. In 2021, the company’s coal production and sales volume were 1050250000 tons and 1056450000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.68% and 28.43% respectively. The average coal sales price was 793.19 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 68.60%, the sales cost of ton coal was 303 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.09%, and the gross profit of ton coal was 427 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.94%.
In 2021, the volume and price of coal chemical business increased simultaneously, and the gross profit increased by 457.90%. In 2021, the revenue and gross profit contributed by the company’s coal chemical sector were RMB 21.402 billion and RMB 6.851 billion respectively, accounting for 14.08% and 15.34% of the company’s revenue and gross profit respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 103.56% and 457.90% respectively. The gross profit margin of coal chemical business reached 32.01%, an increase of 20.33 percentage points over the previous year. The profit growth of coal chemical industry sector comes from the simultaneous rise of volume and price. In terms of price, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the price of chemicals remained high. In 2021, the unit price of the company’s chemical products reached 4080 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 26.59%. In terms of production and sales volume, the second phase of coal chemical industry project was completed and put into operation at the beginning of the year, and the output of methanol and ethylene glycol of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) energy chemical increased significantly. In 2021, the company’s chemical output reached 5.794 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 26.59%, and the sales volume reached 5.246 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 22.68%.
Q4 gross profit increased by 14.46% month on month: Q4 company achieved a revenue of 46.955 billion yuan, an increase of 18.41% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 22.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.727 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 13.89% and a year-on-year increase of 230.31%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin were 33.79% and 10.07% respectively, down 1.17 and 3.78 percentage points month on month respectively. Q4 net profit decreased month on month, mainly due to the company’s provision of 1.669 billion yuan of asset impairment loss and credit impairment loss. Q4 coal sector achieved an output of 105025 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68%; The sales volume was 105645 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.43%. The company’s selling price per ton of coal was 1091 yuan, an increase of 29% month on month; The cost per ton of coal was 436 yuan, an increase of 46% month on month, and the gross profit per ton of coal was 655 yuan, an increase of 20% month on month. In terms of production areas, the headquarters, Yanmei Australia and future energy contributed 28%, 31% and 17% of Q4 gross profit respectively.
Benefiting from the rise of coal prices outside China, the performance of 22q1 company continues to release: according to the performance pre increase announcement issued by the company, it is expected that the return of the company to the parent in 2022q1 is expected to reach 6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 193.20%, deducting non net profit of 6.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 195.81%. The substantial increase in performance is mainly due to the continuous rising trend of international and Chinese coal prices.
The future growth mainly comes from the increase of coal and coal chemical production and the layout of new energy: according to the strategic development outline of the company, the coal company strives to achieve an output scale of 300 million tons / year in 5-10 years; In terms of coal chemical industry, the company strives to produce more than 20 million tons of chemicals in 5-10 years, of which new chemical materials and high-end chemicals account for more than 70%; In terms of new energy, the company strives to achieve an installed capacity of more than 10 million kilowatts of new energy power generation and a hydrogen supply capacity of more than 100000 tons / year in 5-10 years. With the continuous promotion of the company’s transformation, the existing coal and coal chemical production capacity are expected to grow for a long time, which has room to double compared with the current stage. In addition, new energy is a new long-term growth point of the company, and the layout of new energy will help the company change from a coal industry chain company to a comprehensive energy material supplier.
Investment suggestion: we adjusted the company’s profit forecast according to the expectation that the coal price center will remain high in 2022. After adjustment, the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 are 4.06 yuan, 4.58 yuan and 4.70 yuan respectively, and the roe is 27.7%, 26.3% and 22.8%. The company’s new strategic transformation plan has large growth space. Under the expectation that the coal price will remain high, the company’s performance is expected to continue to release. The current dynamic valuation is still low, maintaining the “buy-b” investment rating.
Risk warning: the decline of coal price exceeds the expected risk; Environmental protection supervision risk; Exchange risk; The risk that the strategic transformation is less than expected.
