\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Key investment points
Data overview
2021a net profit attributable to parent company + 18.6% year on year; Revenue + 11.4% year-on-year and growth rate + 1.2pc month on month; ROE11. 9%； ROA0. 64%, year-on-year + 4bp. The non-performing rate was 0.82%, unchanged month on month; The provision coverage rate is 419%.
Core view
1. Revenue growth picked up. 2021a net profit was + 18.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 3.4pc month on month based on the high base of 21q1-3, ranking first among state-owned banks; Revenue was + 11% year-on-year, and the growth rate was + 1pc month on month.
Main driving factors: (1) interest margin: 21q4 single quarter interest margin (at the beginning and end of the period) rose -4bp to 2.20% month on month, with pressure on both ends of asset negative. ① On the asset side, the return on assets (at the beginning and end of the period) rose -2bp to 3.72% month on month, and the proportion of loans decreased. 21q4 loans were + 1.3% month on month, 1.7pc slower than total assets. ② On the liability side, the debt cost ratio (at the beginning and end of the period) increased by + 3bp to 1.65% month on month, due to the upward cost of active debt. The cost rate of 21h2 bonds and inter-bank bonds increased by 11bp and 8bp compared with 21h1. (2) Non interest income: non interest income of 21a increased by + 50% year-on-year and 21q1-3 + 15pc month on month. ① The median income was + 33% year-on-year, and the growth rate was + 1pc month on month, and the wealth management strategy continued to work; ② Other non interest rates increased by + 68% year-on-year and + 29pc month on month, due to the low base effect. (3) Cost: business and management fees increased by + 13.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was + 5.3pc month on month. Judging the attribution, we took the initiative to increase investment in technology, personnel and business sales. At the same time, the proportion of deposits contributed by agency outlets increased, resulting in the growth rate of savings agency fees increased by 2pc compared with 21h1. (4) Impairment: the impairment loss of 21a was – 7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1pc higher than that of 21q1-3, mainly due to the low base effect in the same period last year.
Looking forward to the future, with the decline of the low base effect, it is expected that the profit growth rate in 2022 will be lower than that in 2021. However, under the strategic force of wealth and Pratt & Whitney, the profit growth rate is expected to rank in the forefront among state-owned banks.
2. Wealth keeps growing rapidly. (1) In terms of customer base, the number of wealth customers was + 24% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 3pc higher than that of 21h1; (2) In terms of income, the income in financial management was + 23% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 21h1 + 12pc; The agency’s medium income was + 89% year-on-year, contributing 60% of the year-on-year increment of handling fee income. The wealth business has become an important profit growth engine.
3. Increase investment in science and technology. (1) Clear scientific and technological planning. According to the disclosure of the annual report, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) has formed the speed informatization strategy, and the development of financial technology is expected to accelerate. (2) Increased investment in science and technology. In 2021, the information input was + 11% year-on-year, accounting for 3% of the revenue, and the number of science and technology personnel of the head office was + 24% year-on-year. The improvement of scientific and technological capacity is expected to enable channel capacity and operation efficiency and support performance growth.
4. The defective products remain excellent. The non-performing rate was flat at 0.82% month on month, the attention rate was + 2bp to 0.47% month on month, and the overdue rate was flat at 0.89% month on month, maintaining an excellent level among listed banks as a whole. The rise in the concern rate is speculated to be related to the rise in the risk of consumer loans. The non-performing rate of personal non real estate consumer loans and credit cards increased by 32BP and 45bp compared with 21h1. The provision coverage ratio -4pc rose to 419% month on month. When the provision level is sufficient, some provisions will be released to feed back profits. Looking forward to the future, adequate provision level and excellent asset quality will lay a solid foundation for profit growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will increase by 13.08% / 13.16% / 13.43% year-on-year, corresponding to bps7.5% 54 / 8.29 / 9.15 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.72/0.65/0.59 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 7.00 yuan / share, corresponding to 22 years of pb0.00 yuan 93x, the current price corresponds to 22 years pb0 72x, 30% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and substantial exposure of adverse.
