\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 960 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) )
Performance meets expectations; Revenue + 53%, deducting non net profit + 37%, the proportion of accounts receivable decreased for three consecutive years, and the revenue in 2021 was 3.86 billion yuan, an increase of 53%; The net profit was 530 million yuan, an increase of 23%; Deduct non net profit of 510 million yuan, an increase of 37%. The net cash flow from operating activities was 190 million yuan, a decrease of 35% (mainly increasing the cash flow occupied by raw material preparation and locking long orders). Accounts receivable accounted for 29%, which has decreased for three consecutive years since 2018, mainly because the company increased the assessment weight of dealers’ accounts receivable. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%; The net profit was 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%. In the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin and net profit margin were 33% and 12% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 and 0.6pct respectively.
The internal and external two wheel drive of general fire protection business increased by 31%, and the gross profit margin was stable at 40%. In 2021, the ” Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ” brand in general fire protection grew steadily, and the “Jiuyuan” brand increased by more than 50%. Main reasons: 1) the clearing speed of the industry exceeded expectations, and the market share accelerated to the leading concentration; 2) In case of chip shortage, the company guarantees the delivery of self-developed chips; Overseas, the company has formed a multi brand matrix of Canada “maplearmor” + France “finsecur” + Spain “detnov” + America “MPOWER”, and began to radiate the global market.
Emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation business increased by more than 266% year-on-year, and the part contributed by left-hand lighting to the consolidated statement increased. In 2021, the orders and shipments of emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation business continued to grow explosively, and the revenue increased by more than 200% year-on-year; Left lighting contributed some growth after consolidation in the fourth quarter; Emergency lighting and evacuation have formed multi brand matrices such as ” Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ,” left lighting “and” Zhongke Zhichuang “to seize the industry dividend.
Industrial fire protection has achieved breakthroughs in the fields of iron and steel, petrochemical, metallurgy and rail transit; Energy storage and fire protection obtained orders, and the company achieved 0-1 breakthrough in industrial fire protection fields such as iron and steel, petrochemical, metallurgy and rail transportation, with a revenue of 35.63 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 226%; In the field of energy storage and fire fighting, the company continues to promote the market expansion and application of “detection + fire extinguishing” system products in the field of energy storage power stations, and has won the bid for the American broad reach power independent power producer project, multi specification energy storage container gas fire extinguishing system project, etc.
The “3 + 2 + 2” business framework has taken shape, and the growth has entered an accelerated period; The revenue target of 5 billion yuan is expected to be achieved in advance. The “troika” with general fire alarm (including overseas), emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation and industrial fire fighting as the core, the automatic fire extinguishing and gas detection business of gas and the “3 + 2 + 2” business framework of “two new stars” with intelligent fire fighting and household fire fighting as the core have been completed, and the business growth of the company has entered an accelerated period. By 2023, we will strive to achieve the revenue target of more than 5 billion yuan, which is expected to be achieved ahead of schedule.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 660 / 890 / 1.14 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25% / 34% / 28% and PE of 22 / 16 / 13 times. We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company’s market share in the civil market, the strength of import substitution in the industrial market and the development potential of energy storage fire fighting and intelligent fire fighting. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) gross profit margin declines due to intensified industry competition; 2) Higher receivables may lead to bad debts
