\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 128 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
Key investment points
Performance overview
2021 annual report: Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) net profit attributable to parent company + 21.3% year-on-year, growth rate + 2.3pc month on month; Revenue + 16.3% year-on-year and growth rate + 3.3pc month on month; ROE11. 6%, year-on-year + 1.3pc; ROA1. 03%, year-on-year + 5bp; The non-performing rate was 0.81%, unchanged month on month, and the provision coverage rate was 532%, month on month + 10pc. Performance forecast of Q1 in 2022: Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) net profit attributable to parent company + 23% year on year, with a growth rate of 21a + 1.7pc; Revenue + 19% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 21a + 2.7pc; The non-performing rate was 0.81%, the same as that at the end of 21.
Double increase in revenue and profit
Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 2021a net profit attributable to parent company + 21.3% year-on-year, growth rate + 2.3pc month on month; 2021a’s revenue was + 16.3% year-on-year and the growth rate was + 3.3pc month on month, mainly due to the reduction of interest margin. 21q4 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) net interest margin (at the beginning and end of the period) increased by + 2bp to 2.98% month on month, which was attributed to the rise in the proportion of personal loans, which led to the recovery of loan yield. 21q4 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) personal loans increased by + 4.3% month on month, 4pc faster than the total loans; The yield of 21h2 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) loan increased by 15bp to 6.31% compared with 21h1. Looking forward to the future, benefiting from the advantages of economic location and the promotion of the strategy of becoming small and scattered, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) is expected to maintain good performance growth. It is worth noting that Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) disclosed the performance forecast of 22q1, and disclosed that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 was + 23% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 21a + 1.7pc; Revenue was + 19% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 21a + 2.7pc. Revenue growth was strong, exceeding market expectations. It is estimated that the main supporting factor for the accelerated growth of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) revenue is the strong credit supply. According to the announcement on the operation of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) in the first two months, the total loan at the end of February 2022 was 172.3 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5% compared with the end of 2021q1, maintaining a high growth rate.
Promotion of strategic transformation
The strategy of “small and scattered” continued to be promoted. At the end of 21q4, loans of less than Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 10 million accounted for + 2.9pc to 76.7% month on month. According to the annual report, the company established four new inclusive finance pilot zones around Changshu in 2021, and issued small and micro loans of more than 5 billion yuan in only nine months, accounting for more than 16% of the total loan increment of the company in that year. The expansion of non local institutions (outside Changshu) has achieved remarkable results. The revenue of markets outside Changshu in 21a is + 27% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 21h1 + 9pc; At the end of the year, loans from markets outside Changshu increased by + 35% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 2pc compared with that at the end of 21h1. The continuous promotion of remote expansion will continue to support the growth of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) loans.
Provisions continue to thicken
In terms of non-performing, the non-performing rate and attention rate of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 21q4 were basically unchanged at 0.81% and 0.89% month on month. The overdue rate at the end of 21 decreased by 7bp to 0.90% compared with that at the end of 21h1, and remained at an excellent level. At the same time, the generation rate of 2021a Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) real bad TTM decreased by 13bp to 0.28% compared with 21h1, and the bad pressure was small. In terms of provision, 21q4 continues to thicken by 10pc to 532% at the high level. Looking forward to the future, the asset quality is expected to continue to improve steadily, and the higher provision coverage also lays a foundation for the release of profits.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) parent company from 2022 to 2024 will increase by 20.2% / 18.0% / 18.2% year-on-year, corresponding to bps7.2% 98 / 8.82/9.82 yuan. Maintain the target price of 9.50 yuan, corresponding to 1.19 times Pb in 2022. The current price corresponds to pb0.00 in 202294 times, current price space 26%, buy rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and sharp outbreak of adverse.
