\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 390 China Railway Group Limited(601390) )
Revenue performance grew steadily, deducting 19% of non performance growth, showing a bright performance. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1070.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.65%; The deduction of non-financial performance was 26.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.35%, showing a bright performance, and the growth rate was faster than that before deduction, which was mainly due to the decrease of fund occupation fees for non-financial enterprises, investment income of financial assets and other non operating net income in 21 years compared with the same period in 20 years. Quarterly, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 operating revenue increased by + 51.1% / + 0.7% / – 0.1% / + 6.2% respectively; Net profit attributable to parent company increased by + 81% / – 19% / + 15% / + 0.6% respectively. The company’s annual report disclosed that it plans to achieve a total operating revenue of about 1120 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 4.4% over the actual number in 2021. It is estimated that the newly signed contract amount is about 2.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3% over the actual number in 21 years. The company plans to pay 1.96 yuan in 10 dividends, with a dividend rate of 17.5%. The dividend rate corresponding to the current stock price is 3.23%.
The profitability was basically stable, and the inflow of operating cash flow decreased. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 10%, yoy + 0.05 PCT, and the gross profit margin of infrastructure / survey and design / engineering equipment / real estate development / other businesses changed by + 0.09 / – 3.36 / + 2.82 / – 1.01 / – 0.42 PCT respectively, and the overall gross profit margin remained stable. During the period, the expense rate was 5.49%, yoy-0.12 PCT, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate changed by + 0.04 / – 0.06 / + 0.06 / – 0.17 PCT respectively. The decrease in the financial expense rate was mainly due to the expansion of the investment scale of infrastructure projects in the financial asset model and the rapid growth of the recognized interest income. The impairment loss of assets (including credit) was basically the same as that of the previous year. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 2.58%, yoy-0.01 PCT. In 2021, the net operating cash flow of the company was 13.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.9 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. We analyzed the main reasons: 1) the rise in the price of raw materials, the increase in the company’s stock and the increase in procurement expenditure. 2) Moderately increase the land reserve of real estate business.
New orders increased steadily and there were abundant orders on hand. In 2021, the total newly signed contract amount of the company was 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7% at the same time; In terms of sectors, the capital construction sector newly signed 2.42 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, of which railway / highway / municipal and others increased by 22% / – 27.9% / 19% respectively year-on-year. The rapid growth of railway orders is mainly due to the completion of bidding for major projects such as Sichuan Tibet railway; In the non engineering contracting sector, survey and design consulting / industrial manufacturing / real estate development and other businesses were newly signed with RMB 20.6/613580/172.8 billion respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 21% / 13% / – 15% / – 37% respectively.
In terms of regions, the newly signed contract amount of domestic business was 2.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; The newly signed contract amount of overseas business was 151.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. By the end of 2021, the outstanding contract amount was 4.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.5% year-on-year, about four times the revenue in 2021. There are sufficient orders on hand to ensure sustained and steady growth in the future.
The strength of the resource sector was underestimated and the profit contribution increased significantly. By the end of 2021, the retained resources / reserves of the mines held by the company mainly include about 8.195 million tons of copper, about 610000 tons of cobalt and about 660000 tons of molybdenum; The annual output is mainly about 240000 tons of copper, an increase of 14%; 3223 tons of cobalt, an increase of 26%; Molybdenum 14955 tons, an increase of 88%. The retained reserves of copper, cobalt and molybdenum are in a leading position in the same industry in China, and the self-produced copper and molybdenum production capacity of mines has ranked in the forefront of the same industry in China. In 2021, the net profit of the company’s resources sector was 3.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 50%, and the contribution attributable to the parent company accounted for about 11%. The current comparable company corresponds to pe16 in Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) 21 years Three times. If valued according to this, the market value of the company’s resources sector can reach 55.4 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the current total market value.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company in 22-24 years will be 31.1/34.9/39.2 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 13% / 12% / 12% and EPS of 1.26/1.41/1.58 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 4.8/4.3/3.8 times respectively. At present, Pb (LF) is 0.67 times, which is at a historical low. The steady growth force is expected to promote the valuation repair and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the steady growth is not up to expectations, the profit of mineral resources business is not up to expectations, the risk of repeated epidemic, the increase of real estate impairment provision, and the project progress is not up to expectations
