\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 618 Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) )
Event:
Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) released the 2021 annual report: during the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 500572 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.375 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.11% and 6.52% respectively.
Key investment points:
The revenue increased rapidly, the profitability was stable, and the main business was more concentrated. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 500572 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.375 billion yuan. The annual revenues of project contracting, real estate development, equipment manufacturing and resource development of the four business segments were 462290 billion yuan, 21.416 billion yuan, 11.623 billion yuan and 6.669 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.01%, - 11.19%, 5.12% and 52.14% respectively. The project contracting business continued to grow rapidly, accounting for 90.97% of the total revenue.
The real estate policy is getting warmer, the infrastructure is working again, and the future is expected to be better. In 2021, the real estate industry experienced a process from strong regulation to marginal relaxation. In 2021, the company's real estate business revenue was 21.416 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%, accounting for 4.21% of the company's main business. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, urbanization development is changing from the incremental expansion of new urban construction to the stock of urban renewal and transformation. In the future, the transformation of old cities, the transformation of shantytowns and affordable housing will become the main tone of the real estate market. Affected by the epidemic situation in 2021, the cumulative year-on-year change trend of infrastructure investment is highly similar to that of the real estate industry. The company's housing and infrastructure construction projects achieved a total revenue of 316.5 billion yuan, accounting for about 68.48% of the composition of project contracting business. The two businesses increased by 38.32% and 14.17% respectively year-on-year. In the macro downward environment, the company's performance still shows strong toughness, and the company's market development ability has been confirmed. In 2022, with the warming of real estate policy and the renewed strength of infrastructure investment, it is expected to be better in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's revenue increased sharply against the trend in 2021, and its profitability was stable. In 2022, under the background of infrastructure development and marginal relaxation of real estate policies, the company's performance is expected to be better. We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue will be 562597 billion yuan, 610799 billion yuan and 651911 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10.422 billion yuan, 12.277 billion yuan and 13.603 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 7.46, 6.33 and 5.71 times of PE. The company will be given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: changes in real estate policies; The number of new orders for infrastructure decreased; The impact of the epidemic on the economy exceeded expectations; Non ferrous metal prices fell; The international situation affects the progress of overseas mineral projects.
