\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 389 Aerospace Ch Uav Co.Ltd(002389) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021 on March 30: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.49%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 228 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 174 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.70%.
The company’s annual performance declined due to the drag of inefficient capacitor film business and the impact of the epidemic. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.49%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 228 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent of 174 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.70%. On the one hand, the decline of the company’s performance is dragged down by the decline of capacitor film business. The company has stripped off relevant businesses during the reporting period. On the other hand, the military trade business of UAV has declined due to the impact of the epidemic. In the fourth quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.68%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 142 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.97%. Most of the company’s performance was confirmed in the fourth quarter, accounting for 42.67% (year-on-year + 7.01pct). As most of the R & D expenses were spent in the fourth quarter (107 million yuan, year-on-year + 42.39%), the net profit of 21q4 decreased year-on-year.
The proportion of three fees decreased slightly, and R & D investment continued to grow. The company’s 2021 three fees accounted for 9.84% (year-on-year -0.67pct), of which the sales expense rate, management expense rate and financial expense rate were 1.45% (year-on-year + 0.07pct), 7.87% (year-on-year + 0.60pct) and 0.52% (year-on-year -1.34pct). The company’s three fees were well controlled, indicating that the company’s operation and management were good. In 2021, the company’s R & D expenditure reached 186 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.91%, and the R & D expenditure rate reached 6.40%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.36 PCT. The company’s R & D expenses have been increasing for four consecutive years, and continue to increase the R & D investment of UAV system in its core business, which is conducive to maintaining the strong competitiveness of the company’s products. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 24.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.03pct, mainly due to the sharp decline of UAV military trade business with high gross profit margin.
Build a long UAV industry chain, and the contract amount of Chinese models has reached a record high. In 2021, the company’s UAV business achieved a revenue of 1.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.36%, and the gross profit margin was 25.47%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.15 PCT. The international business achieved a revenue of 548 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.19%, and the gross profit margin was 37.60%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.44 PCT. The company’s international business is mainly UAV military trade business. Disturbed by the global epidemic, the company’s military trade business has declined sharply, resulting in a decline in the overall gross profit margin of the company’s UAV business. On the other hand, the company’s UAV business in China has increased significantly, and the military trade business has made a major breakthrough in feeding China’s UAV assembly. During the reporting period, the company achieved batch renewal of Chinese UAVs, and the model signing amount reached a record high. The newly signed orders are expected to significantly increase the company’s performance in 2022. At the level of business planning, the company plans the industrial layout of “research, trial, production and use” coordinated development in Beijing, Tianjin and Taizhou, establishes flight cooperation with more than 20 Military / civilian airports in Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Guangdong and Hainan, improves the industrial scale and creates a long UAV industrial chain.
Stripping of inefficient capacitor film assets, the film new material business is expected to be significantly improved. During the reporting period, the company stripped the inefficient capacitor film business, and the new material business focused on the photovoltaic backing film and optical film business. In 2021, the revenue of backing film was 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.08%, and the gross profit margin was 24.84% (year-on-year + 14.84 PCT). The revenue of optical film was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%, and the gross profit margin was 23.55% (year-on-year – 3.53%). On the whole, after stripping off the capacitor film assets, the asset quality of the company’s film new materials business has been greatly improved, which is expected to improve the company’s operation quality.
Investment suggestion: we maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 48.81/77.84/9.269 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 476/7.67/937 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 0.48 yuan, 0.77 yuan and 0.94 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 40.1x, 24.9x and 20.4x respectively. Military trade business is expected to recover, China’s UAV train loading speed up, the company’s fundamentals are expected to improve significantly, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk prompt event: military orders are less than expected; Military trade orders are less than expected; The profit forecast is lower than expected.
