\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 877 Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) )
Core view
The performance and inventory structure of the whole year continued to decline by 5%. In 2021, the company's revenue was 10.92 billion yuan, + 16.3%, and its net profit was 680 million yuan, - 5.0%. Gross profit margin 53.0%, + 0.5p p.。 Sales / management expense ratio 36.2% / 6.5%, + 1.3 / + 0.4p p. , operating profit margin / net interest rate were 9.0% / 6.2%, -0.8p p./-1.3p. p.。 From the channel, the proportion of tiktok / franchisee / electricity supplier is 42%/26%/31%, of which the direct store store +14% is 536, to 3598, and the +20% (20%). In terms of inventory, the year-end inventory turnover is 168 days, + 2 days, and the inventory within one year is + 2.3p p. To 68.6%, inventory of more than 3 years -4.4p p. To 2.9%, continuously optimize and reach a relatively healthy level.
In the fourth quarter, the operating environment was under pressure and the performance fell sharply. In 2021, Q4 company's revenue was 3.51 billion yuan, - 9.2%, and its net profit was 123 million yuan, - 69.3%. Gross profit margin 51.6%, -2.5p p. , sales / management expense ratio 36.4% / 6.7%, + 3.3 / + 0.8p p.。 The sharp decline in performance was mainly due to the fourth quarter. 1) the gross profit margin of franchise channels was -9.6p p； 2) Expenses for signing two top-notch spokesmen; 3) When the operating environment is under pressure and the water flow is less than expected, there are more rigid costs in Direct stores, resulting in a significant increase in the cost rate. By channel, the direct / franchise / online revenue is 1.40 billion yuan, - 21.3% / - 10.0% / 8.8%. Gross profit margin - 4.7 / - 9.5 / + 8.2p p. To 65.3% / 36.8% / 46.6%.
Outlook: there is still pressure on the water flow in the near future, but it is relatively reduced. Channel reform and inventory optimization help restore growth.
In terms of water flow, the repeated epidemic since 2022 still has a certain negative impact on retail, but it is better than Q4 last year; In terms of channel, the company will maintain prudent strategy of opening up and closing the battalion, closing down inefficient stores and joining the tiktok strategy. Meanwhile, the line will continue to exert its efforts to shake the new retail sales and restore Tmall growth. In terms of inventory, the company will speed up the handling of old goods, determine production based on sales, control production and further optimize the inventory structure; In terms of brand, the company continues to interpret the national tide culture, focuses on young fashion, and takes Taiping youth as a pilot to create young trend products.
Risk tips: repeated epidemics, less than expected channel reform, fluctuations in raw material prices and systemic risks.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the elasticity of performance in the second half of the year in the short term, and continue to be optimistic about the growth space of the company in the medium and long term. Affected by the epidemic and warm winter in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company's performance did not meet expectations due to the superimposed cost pressure. There is still some pressure on the retail flow since 2022, but the company is actively mobilizing the team to adjust strategies and deploy new playing methods. In the short term, we are optimistic about the recovery of the epidemic this year and the performance elasticity in the second half of the year after the base pressure in the first half of the year. In the medium and long term, the company's brand, products and channels are young, with significant advantages, and there is a wide space for benchmarking with similar competitive products. At the same time, the channel reform measures of "joining in and expanding stores and improving efficiency through direct sales" are expected to gradually increase the net interest rate and continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term growth potential of the company. Maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 8.2/10.0/1.17 billion respectively, with an increase of 21.8% / 21.0% / 17.2% and EPS of RMB 1.73/2.09/2.45. The company will be given 18 ~ 19xpe in 2022, maintain a reasonable valuation of RMB 31.2 ~ 32.9 and maintain the "buy" rating.
