\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company announced that the operating revenue and net profit of the company in 2021 were 106190 billion yuan and 52.460 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 11.88% and 12.34% respectively; In 2021q4, the operating revenue and net profit were 31.548 billion yuan and 15.194 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 13.89% and 18.06% respectively. The sales volume of Maotai liquor was 36300 tons, an increase of 5.68% at the same time.
2021 ends perfectly and 2022 moves on. The growth rate of revenue / net profit in 2021 was 11.88% / 12.34% respectively, which was faster than the performance forecast and slightly higher than the previous guidance. (1) From the perspective of specific product contribution, in 2021, the company's Maotai Liquor / other series liquor revenue increased by 10.18% / 26.06% year-on-year respectively, of which the volume was 36300 / 30200 tons respectively, with an increase of 5.68% / 1.46% respectively, and the ton price increased by 4.26% / 24.25% to 25775 and 417400 yuan / ton respectively. The increase of ton liquor price raised the company's overall profitability, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin improved. (2) From the perspective of specific operating indicators, the operating quality reflected by cash flow, contract liabilities and other indicators is commendable. In terms of cash flow, in 2021, the company received 11.9 billion yuan in cash (cash received from sales of goods and services), an increase of 11.49%, basically matching the growth rate of revenue; The contractual liabilities at the end of the period were 12.718 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6 billion yuan month on month and a decrease of 600 million yuan year on year. Considering the continuous increase of the proportion of direct sales and the high level of advance collection, it shows that the dealers are still highly motivated to make payments. (3) Looking forward to 2022, the company has formulated a business plan for the growth of total operating revenue by 15%, which is accelerated compared with 2021. Among them, Q1 revenue / net profit in 2022 increased by 18% / 19% respectively, making a good start.
Increase the proportion of non-standard and direct sales, raise the price of the company's ton of wine and improve profitability. The gross profit margin of the company increased by 0.14 PCT to 91.62% over the same period last year, mainly due to the large volume of non-standard and other high-value products in Maotai liquor and the increase in the proportion of direct sales channels. The former can see that the price trend of zodiac and non-standard products has fallen since the second half of 2021, and the continuous large volume of non-standard products in Q1 of 22 years; According to the statement of the latter, the revenue from direct sales channels increased by 81.49% over the same period last year to 24 billion yuan, accounting for 22.66% of the revenue, an increase of 8pct. The sales expense ratio was - 0.1pct to 2.5% year-on-year, highlighting the strong position of the brand. The rate of administrative expenses increased slightly from 0.8pct to 7.78%. Based on the above, the net profit margin of the company increased by 0.29pct to 52.47% compared with last year. Considering the profitability of the company, it is not easy to further improve it.
The reform has been effective, the goal is full of confidence, and the short-term price fluctuation is conducive to consumption, without changing the leading position. From the perspective of "strengthening the brand image and interaction of e-commerce platform" since its launch on March 31, it is expected that the company will continue to focus on improving the brand image of the new e-commerce platform, including the results of "stabilizing and restraining the brand" since its launch on March 31; Judging from the performance of Maotai's pricing, after the cancellation of "unpacking" and other policies, the market supply is gradually unblocked, the pricing is rationally cooled down, and the real consumption demand is released. Compared with 2021, the company's growth target has accelerated significantly. Previously, the chairman said in public that the company has made "great strides". At present, there is no doubt that the company has the ability to release performance, and will achieve healthier and faster growth under the guidance of this positive goal. Recently, due to repeated epidemics and sluggish consumption, the market rating fluctuates. We believe that the decline in the early rating is mainly due to the normal short-term supply and shrinking demand. Later, with the continuous recovery of demand, the rating will return, and the decline in the short-term rating can effectively release consumption without changing the brand value of the enterprise.
Investment suggestion: continue to maintain the Buy-A rating. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 49.69/57.89/65.84 yuan, and the six-month target price is 2400 yuan, which is equivalent to the 41x P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk tip: policy and consumption tax risk, Maotai channel control effect does not meet expectations, and the expectation of price increase fails
