\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 868 China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) )
The company announced 21fy annual report, with annual revenue of 322.3 billion, yoy + 19%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 6.5 billion, yoy + 39%. Corresponding 21q4 company revenue 112.7 billion, yoy + 15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.1 billion, yoy + 17%. The performance is in line with our expectations.
Recently, it also disclosed the new orders signed by 21fy company. The new contract amount of 21fy company was 872.6 billion, yoy + 51% (vs21q1-3 45%). In the same period, 800.9 billion new projects were signed, yoy + 46%, accounting for 92%; Among them, traditional energy / new energy and smart energy / urban construction signed 2019 / 1928 / 145.2 billion respectively, yoy respectively + 22% / 53% / 11%. The growth rate of 21fy new signing is bright, and 21q4 has further accelerated.
New energy operation shows growth flexibility, with sufficient orders on hand and pressure on profitability
Multi point flowering, new energy operation shows growth flexibility, and there are sufficient orders on hand. In terms of business, the revenue from engineering construction / survey and design consulting / industrial manufacturing / investment and operation of 21fy company is 263.9/148/28.2/27.3 billion respectively, and yoy is + 25% / 5% / 17% / 1% respectively. The income from engineering construction increased significantly, benefiting from the support of new signing; The growth of investment and operation business is weak, and the ecological and environmental protection business is greatly dragged down. Specifically, the new energy and smart energy / ecological and environmental protection / comprehensive transportation / real estate 21fy revenue are 1.3/14/19/15 billion respectively, yoy + 101% / – 84% / 32% / 27% respectively. The stock of ecological and environmental protection assets is reduced (water treatment, etc.), and the layout of new energy assets is strengthened, driving the high growth of new energy and smart energy revenue. At the end of 21fy, the total amount of orders on hand of the company was 1.61 trillion, which was 5.0 times the annual revenue. The revenue increased rapidly and is expected to have good continuity. At the end of 21fy, the company held 4.63gw of grid connected installed capacity (vs20fy was 2.87gw, 21fy increased by 1.76gw / + 61%, including 1.18gw of new energy holding installed capacity), including 1.42/0.95/0.78/1.25/0.22gw of wind / light / water / fire / biomass respectively. The company made every effort to develop new energy investment, construction and operation integration projects and 21fy obtained the new energy investment and construction index of 11.62gw.
The overall profitability is under pressure, and the investment and operation structure is improved. 21fy company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 13.2%, yoy-0.6pct; Among them, 21q4 is 14.5%, yoy-1.6pct. In terms of business, the gross profit margins of engineering construction, survey and design consulting / industrial manufacturing / investment and operation of 21fy company are 8.5% / 35.4% / 23.7% / 27.1% respectively, yoy are – 0.1 / + 1.4 / – 3.2 / + 7.1pct respectively. The gross profit margin of engineering construction is generally stable, and the pressure on industrial manufacturing is due to the low prosperity of the cement industry and the obvious increase in the gross profit margin of investment and operation (the increase in the proportion of new energy, smart energy and comprehensive transportation revenue with high gross profit effectively hedges the drag of the decline in real estate profit margin). The cost control continues to improve. The net profit rate of 21fy company is 3.0%, yoy-0.2pct, of which the net profit rate of 21q4 is 2.8%, yoy-1.4pct. The net profit rate in a single quarter is under pressure. In addition to the drag of gross profit margin, it also has the impact of reducing the contribution of income from changes in fair value and increasing the effective income tax rate. The net interest rates of 21fy and 21q4 attributable to the parent company were 2.0% and 2.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.3 and + 0.1pct respectively. It is speculated that the year-on-year improvement is mainly due to the reduction of minority shareholders’ equity caused by the company’s return to a.
The prospect of low-carbon energy transformation is excellent. We look forward to “rebuilding a new energy construction” and maintaining the “buy” rating
There is a certain pressure on profitability. The forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 was slightly lowered to 9 / 10.8 billion (the previous value was 9.3/10.9 billion), and the forecast for 24 years was 12.8 billion, with + 38% / 20% / 19% YoY respectively in 22-24 years. The company has made it clear that “in 2025, build a new energy construction with high-quality development”, and we are optimistic about it; China’s energy structure adjustment has brought broad development space to the company. We continue to be optimistic about the prospects of the company’s low-carbon energy transformation, look forward to the progress of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) cultivation (hydrogen energy, etc.), maintain the early target price of 3.39 yuan, corresponding to about 15.7x PE in 22 years, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the company’s strategy implementation effect is lower than expected, the power and infrastructure investment is weaker than expected, impairment risk and policy risk
