\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 117 China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) )
the 14th five year plan issued in China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) 21 proposed to “build a supplier of high-end chemicals and advanced materials”, and made it clear that the proportion of industrial business income at the end of the 14th five year plan should be increased to 15% (vs20fy accounts for about 5%), and attention should be paid to the development prospect of the company’s industrial new materials business.
Preliminary exploration of new industrial materials: gains and losses
PTA project: twists and turns, the industry boom declined rapidly, and the project benefit was lower than expected. On November 4, the company issued the investment announcement of PTA project (with an annual output of 1 million tons and a planned investment of 4.193 billion). At that time, at the peak of PTA boom, China’s new PTA capacity was rapidly launched, and the PTA capacity of the industry had been in excess in 15 years. The PTA project of the company started on December 2 and completed the intermediate handover on June 17. Due to the downward revision of the expected return in the construction stage of the project, the impairment of projects in 16-18 years is withdrawn separately by 4.9/4.0/400 million, which is a great drag on the company’s stage. Before the project is officially put into operation, the company leases the overall assets of PTA project to Sichuan energy investment. The project has accumulated profound lessons for the company.
Caprolactam project: the construction / operation of the project is smooth, and the industry has successfully tried to gain valuable experience. Caprolactam project (with an annual output of 200000 tons and a planned investment of 4.108 billion) started construction on November 5, started smoothly on August 14, and expanded and transformed the project in 16 years. From 17 to 19, the net profit of the project was 480 / 480 / 290 million respectively, and the net interest rate of the project was 11% / 11% / 7%. In fact, the caprolactam project is also faced with the decline of the industry prosperity after it is put into operation, and the actual benefit of the project is lower than the preliminary planning. However, the successful operation and subsequent continuous upgrading of the project have a fair return. It is a successful attempt of the company to invest in new industrial materials, and the experience is of great benefit to the subsequent expansion of the industry.
Adiponitrile project: “neck” technology is about to be fully put into operation, and the performance elasticity is worth looking forward to
Pa6620, which has important development prospects, still has nearly half of its dependence on foreign countries. The supply of adiponitrile monopolized by a few multinational enterprises for a long time is the key factor restricting industrial development. In recent years, Chinese enterprises have made many attempts in the layout of adiponitrile, and China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) is the leader in breaking through the direct cyanidation of butadiene to prepare adiponitrile. The company has worked on this technology for decades. After solid achievement demonstration, small-scale test and pilot test, the company jointly invested in the construction of nylon 66 new material project with Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) investment in 19 years. The core devices include the unit with an annual output of 200000 tons of adiponitrile and the unit with an annual output of 300000 tons of acrylonitrile and hydrocyanic acid. On 22 / 03, the company announced that the overall project entered the interim delivery and feeding period, which is the staggered period of trial production, and the supporting acrylonitrile cogeneration unit was successfully started at one time. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the company’s own nitrile project under the scenario of 20 billion yuan is 2.3% of the net profit of the company in FY.
We look forward to the industrialization of more industrial projects, raise the profit forecast for 22 / 23 years and maintain the “buy” rating
We have thoroughly reviewed the industrial projects that the company has landed, landed and landed, including the completion of the 100 thousand ton PBAT project completed by the machine, the 50 thousand ton aerogel project successfully launched, and the industrialization of exploring the waste hydrogen / hydrogen storage business that has entered the deep water area. Other projects close to industrialization, pilot / pilot test and other stages have rich reserves, and the industrial sector has full potential for development, so the potential value should be paid attention to. There is pressure on the phased profit margin. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is slightly reduced to 4 billion (the former value is 4.4 billion), and considering the production contribution of adiponitrile, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 years is increased to 6 / 7.9 billion (the former value is 5.3/6.2 billion), which is 10% / 49% / 31% YoY respectively in 21-23 years. The net profit attributable to the parent company of industrial business in the same period is expected to be 0.2/8.8/2 billion respectively. For segment valuation, industrial business is 20xpe in 23 years and other businesses are 10xpe. The overall target market value of the company is 99.1 billion, the target price of the company is raised to 16.22 yuan, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the adiponitrile project is put into operation and the product sales price falls sharply; The execution and effect of new materials in the layout industry are lower than expected, the price of engineering raw materials fluctuates sharply, and there is an impairment risk.
