\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 960 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) )
Event: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 3.863 billion yuan (+ 53.03%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 530 million yuan (+ 23.21%), and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 513 million yuan (+ 36.63%); Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.288 billion yuan (+ 52.2%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 155 million yuan (+ 45.23%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 145 million yuan (+ 54.4%); At the same time, it is proposed to distribute cash dividends of 4 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increase 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shares with capital reserve.
Comments:
Revenue maintained a high growth, and the “one-stop” product matrix formed scale advantages: the company’s revenue growth in the single quarter of 21q1-q4 was 166.8%, 39.92%, 41.3% and 52.2% respectively. After deducting the influence of the low base of 20q1, the company’s revenue showed a trend of accelerating quarter by quarter. In terms of business, the revenue of general fire alarm business increased by 30.88%, of which the growth rate of “Jiuyuan” brand exceeded 50%, and the business of overseas subsidiaries also achieved rapid growth to build international competitiveness; The revenue of emergency lighting and evacuation business increased by 266%. Under the catalysis of policies, the industry ushered in a period of rapid development. The company’s multi brand product matrix will fully benefit from the dividends brought by the high growth of the industry; The industrial fire fighting business achieved a breakthrough of 0-1, and the revenue increased by 225.67% at the same time. With the accumulation of project experience and the reserve of R & D advantages, it is expected to seize more market share in some subdivided fields in the future; The company’s gas business achieved a growth rate of more than 30%. On the whole, the advantages of the company in providing one-stop products and services have gradually emerged, and the revenue scale has ushered in a period of rapid growth.
The gross profit margin decreased slightly year-on-year, and the expense rate remained stable during the period: the gross profit margin of the company was 37.14% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of about 2 PCT, on the one hand, due to the rise in the price of raw materials; On the other hand, due to the adjustment of the company’s product structure, the proportion of products with relatively low gross profit margin increased; The gross profit margin of Q4 was 33.02%, down 3.96 PCT month on month and about 0.79 PCT year on year; From the perspective of period expenses, the overall expense rate of the company in 2021 was 21.47%, basically unchanged year-on-year, of which the sales expense rate increased by 1.36 PCT, mainly due to the consolidation of the acquisition target and the increase of sales personnel. The company acquired France finsecur and left lighting last year.
Abundant cash flow and low asset liability ratio. In 2021, the company’s net operating cash flow was 195 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 100 million yuan, mainly because the company made arrangements to prepare goods in advance and lock long orders in response to the expansion of order scale and changes in the external environment, and the prepayment + inventory increased by about 435 million yuan year-on-year. If this item is added back, the company’s net operating cash flow will actually improve; In 2021, the company’s revenue to cash ratio was about 0.92x, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7 PCT, and the accounts and notes receivable increased by 24.11% year-on-year, far lower than the growth rate of revenue. The company’s collection was in good condition. At the end of the reporting period, the company’s monetary cash was 1.484 billion yuan and the asset liability ratio was 34.52%. The company has abundant cash flow and continuous optimization of debt structure, which is conducive to the steady progress of the company’s businesses.
Based on the industry, grasp the trend and build diversified competitiveness of Bluebird. From the vertical perspective of the industrial chain, Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) has a self-developed “Crested Ibis” chip, which not only reduces the cost and increases efficiency, but also brings continuous iteration of technical products to meet the new needs of the changing market; From the horizontal perspective of the industrial chain, the company pursues a multi brand strategy, has more than 10 domestic and foreign sub brands such as Weitai, Jiuyuan and zhengtianqi, creates a differentiated brand matrix and better enters the differentiated market. In the future, relying on the channel advantages, the company is expected to rapidly expand the sales scale and increase the market share; From the perspective of industrial chain trend, the company’s ” Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) cloud” platform has been improved and optimized for the perception layer, communication layer, algorithm layer and application layer of the Internet of things. In the future, with the continuous development of the era of Internet of things, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the wave of intelligence and networking.
Investment suggestion: we adjusted the company’s performance from 2022 to 2024 to 713, 958 and 1257 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 204, 2.75 and 3.6 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE valuation of 20.5, 15.2 and 11.6 times respectively; Maintain the “buy” rating and maintain the target price range of 57.12-61.2 yuan.
Risk warning: policy promotion is not as expected; The industry competition intensifies and the concentration is lower than expected; Emergency evacuation and industrial fire fighting expansion are lower than expected; Energy storage and fire fighting were not advanced as expected
