\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Key financial points: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021, realizing a revenue of 50.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%. Among them, the revenue from fan and parts business was 39.932 billion yuan, accounting for 78.96% of the operating revenue. By the end of 2021, the company had 16.87gw of external orders (including 2.38gw of overseas orders) and 0.56gw of internal orders.
The leading position of wind turbine industry continues to be maintained. Affected by the cancellation of China’s land wind subsidy and the end of rush loading in the industry, the company’s external sales unit capacity decreased in 2021, with an annual sales of 10.68gw, a decrease of 17.39% compared with 2020. The decline in unit sales led to a decline in the company’s revenue in 2021. At the same time, as 2021 is the year of sea breeze rush loading, the company’s high gross margin products account for a relatively high proportion. In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross margin was 22.55%, an increase of 4.82bp compared with 2020. The increase of gross margin still increased the net profit of the company under the decline of revenue. In addition, despite the decline in business receipts affected by industry factors, the company still maintains the leading position in the whole machine industry. According to Bloomberg new energy finance data, the company maintains the first market position in China, with a market share of about 20%; It ranks second in the global wind turbine market, with a share of 12.14%. Combined with the disclosure of the proportion of the company’s overseas revenue in the total revenue (13.6%), we judge that the export sales volume of the company’s fans in 2021 exceeded 1GW.
The business structure continues to be optimized. Reflected in: 1) in recent years, the company has actively promoted the development of wind power services, wind farm development, smart water and other businesses to reduce its dependence on wind turbine and parts business. In 2021, the proportion of wind farm development and wind power service business was 10.53% and 8.07% respectively, an increase of 3.39% and 0.19% over 2020. The revenue from water operation was 734089300 yuan, an increase of 45.08% over the same period of last year. 2) The company’s sales of high-capacity products increased significantly. The sales capacity of 6S / 8s units increased to 18.26% from 3.72% in 2020, the sales capacity of gw3s / 4S units increased to 41.65% from 11.09% in 2020, and large fans of 4MW and above accounted for 47.81% of external sales units, significantly higher than the proportion of external sales units in 2020 (9.0%). We believe that if the order is executed smoothly and the cost is controlled properly, it will help the company’s fans maintain a high industry profitability.
Profound technological accumulation helps strengthen the competitiveness of Haifeng field. The company has deep technical precipitation in the field of complete machine research and development. Since 2006, the company has begun to reserve medium speed permanent magnet technology. After 15 years of accumulation, the medium speed permanent magnet (MSPM) products developed by the company have been put into the market in 2021, realizing the sales of 108.50mw. At the same time, the offshore low wind speed affordable model gw175-6.0 prototype was offline in Dafeng assembly plant in November 2021, and won the first bid for Shandong Changyi 300000 kW project. In 2021, all orders of the company’s offshore projects were delivered and connected to the grid, and the delivery volume exceeded the total offshore delivery volume in previous years. We are optimistic about the future development of the offshore wind power market and the continuous strengthening of the competitiveness of offshore affordable products in the future under the company’s deep accumulation of technology, brand and channel.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.270/48.01/5.347 billion respectively, EPS will be RMB 1.01/1.14/1.27 respectively, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 13.10 on March 28, 2022, and PE will be 13X / 12x / 10x respectively. Maintain the company’s “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the development of wind power industry may not be as expected; The company’s business development and cost control may be lower than expected.
