\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 163 Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 261314 million in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 51% to 81%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 262314 million yuan, an increase of 51% to 81% year-on-year.
Comments:
With high-quality resources, the installed capacity has increased rapidly. On December 21, 2021, Pinghai Bay offshore wind farm phase II project was fully connected to the grid for power generation. The installed capacity of the project was 246000 kW, the on grid price was 0.85 yuan / kWh, the average annual utilization hours was 4529h, and the annual on grid power was 111409 million kwh, which could bring the company 947 million yuan of power generation revenue every year. The full capacity connection of the project greatly improved the performance of the company in the first quarter of 2022. Since 2020, Matoushan wind farm, Wangmu mountain wind farm, Damaoshan wind farm, Qingfeng wind farm phase II and other projects held by the company have been completed and put into operation successively. In 2021, the installed capacity of the company was 957300 kW, with a year-on-year increase of 17.0%; The power generation was 2.654 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 18.48%. The company’s location has excellent wind resources. In 2020, the average utilization hours of the company’s Fujian onshore and offshore wind farms were 3206h and 4530h respectively, far exceeding the Chinese average of 2097h. The continuous grid connection of high-quality projects ensures the rapid growth of the company’s revenue and profit.
The continuous injection of high-quality assets is expected to be involved in pumped storage. Fujian investment group, the controlling shareholder of the company, promises to inject mintou Haidian power (Pinghai Bay offshore wind farm phase III project), mintou power, Ningde mintou (Ningde Xiapu offshore wind farm (a, c) project), Xiapu Mindong (Ningde Xiapu offshore wind farm (b) project) and mintou pumped storage assets into the listed company after meeting the conditions for the project to be put into operation and achieve profitability in a single year. The four offshore wind power projects have a total of 1.208 million KW, of which the 308000 kW project of Pinghai Bay phase III has been put into operation, and the scale of the company’s offshore wind power is expected to continue to break through. Mintou pumped storage has a total investment of 6.7 billion yuan and installed four 300000 kW units to undertake the task of peak and frequency regulation of Fujian power grid. It is planned to put all of them into operation for power generation in 2023. At that time, it is expected to form synergy with the company’s main wind power industry and further boost the development of the company.
Explore the cost of offshore wind power and copy the road of land wind parity. According to the report of renewable energy power generation cost in 2020 released by Irena, the weighted average cost of offshore wind power construction and offshore wind power kwh cost in China decreased by 32.32% and 52.79% respectively from 2010 to 2020. At the beginning of 2022, the price of offshore fan decreased rapidly, and the lowest bid winning price reached 3548 yuan / kW (including tower), which was nearly 50% lower than the highest price in 2021. With the scale effect brought by the large-scale wind turbine and electric field, offshore wind power may replicate the parity of onshore wind power to maintain the healthy and rapid growth of the industry.
Maintain the “buy” rating: the company’s installed capacity continues to grow. At the same time, it is expected to inject a large number of high-quality offshore wind power assets and pumped storage assets in the future. It is expected that the company’s future performance will maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.561 billion, RMB 2.280 billion and RMB 2.695 billion respectively (respectively RMB 1.814 billion, RMB 2.280 billion and RMB 2.695 billion before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 24.67%, 46.06% and 18.21% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 677 million yuan, 1039 million yuan and 1188 million yuan respectively (702 million yuan, 970 million yuan and 1116 million yuan respectively before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 39.43%, 53.42% and 14.28% respectively; EPS is 0.36, 0.55 and 0.62 respectively, and the corresponding PE is 20.70, 13.49 and 11.81 times respectively.
Risk tip: the construction progress of Haifeng project is less than expected, the asset injection progress is less than expected, and the renewable subsidy is in arrears.
