\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 029 China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) )
Events
On March 30, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 101.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; Among them, the operating revenue of Q4 in a single quarter was 23.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%. In 2021, the net loss attributable to the parent company was 12.1 billion yuan, of which the net loss attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 5.98 billion yuan
Key investment points
The annual revenue recovered to 66% in 19 years, and the revenue per passenger kilometer exceeded that in 2019.
The annual operating revenue was 101.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, returning to 66% of the revenue in 2019; In the second half of the year, affected by the epidemic, Q4 operation pressure further increased, and the operating revenue of Q4 in a single quarter was 23.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%. In 2021, the net loss attributable to the parent company was RMB 12.1 billion, of which the net loss attributable to the parent company in Q4 was RMB 5.98 billion. The revenue of 2021 passenger kilometers was 0.49 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.62%, exceeding the level in 2019 (0.48 yuan). By route, China / Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan / international increased by 12% / 39% / 68% respectively. In terms of revenue splitting, the revenue from passenger transport, freight and mail transportation and other main businesses were 75.3 billion, 19.9 billion and 3.2 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9% / 20.6% / – 0.91% respectively, accounting for 77% / 20% / 3% respectively, and the contribution of freight revenue increased by 2pct.
Cost side: the rise in oil prices led to a year-on-year increase of 36% in oil costs, and non oil costs remained stable.
In 2021, the operating cost of the company increased by 9.83% year-on-year. In terms of spin off, the proportion of oil cost / employee salary / depreciation and amortization / landing expenses / others was 25% / 20% / 22% / 15% / 18% respectively. The rise of oil price led to the increase of the proportion of oil cost 5pct, and the proportion of other main costs was not different from that in previous periods. The unit ask cost was 0.48 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the unit ask non oil cost was 0.35 yuan, the same as last year. In 2021, the sales expenses and management expenses decreased by 4.86% and 7.80% respectively. Financial expenses increased by 34.48% year-on-year, and expenses were properly controlled.
Business data: affected by the epidemic, Q4 business data fell sharply, and the size of the fleet maintained steady expansion
As of 20211231, there were 878 aircraft, with a net increase of 11 in the whole year and 9 in the second half of the year. It is estimated that there will be a net increase of 59, 66 and 22 aircraft on 22, 23 and 24 respectively, and the corresponding fleet size will increase by 7%, 7% and 2% year-on-year respectively. Affected by the epidemic, 21q4ask decreased by 32% year-on-year and 47% compared with 19q4. Ask in the whole year was the same as that in the same period last year, with a slight decrease of 0.37%. RPK 21q4 decreased by 39% year-on-year, and the annual RPK decreased slightly by 0.66%. The decline of RPK was stronger than that of ask, and the seating rate of Q4 was 66.39%, a year-on-year decline of 7pct; The annual seating rate was 71.26%, down 0.11pct year-on-year. In terms of subregions, the passenger occupancy rate of China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and international routes decreased by 10.47pct/14.08pct/0.21pct respectively in 2021.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company to achieve revenue of 119.7 billion yuan, 142.4 billion yuan and 159.4 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 18%, 19% and 12% respectively; From 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 8.6 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan and 11 billion yuan respectively. Under the epidemic situation, the recovery trend of the aviation industry remains unchanged in twists and turns. With the slowdown of the supply side growth of the whole industry in 20-22 years, we believe that the market share of the head airlines will further increase, and the strong will always be strong, which will benefit from the recovery cycle of the industry. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the oil price rose more than expected, and the RMB exchange rate depreciated significantly
