\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 316 Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the revenue increased by 42% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non parent company increased by 34% year-on-year
1) for the whole year of 2021: the company achieved revenue of 7.2 billion (+ 42%), net profit attributable to parent company of 151 million (+ 14%), net profit attributable to non parent company of 43 million (+ 34%). The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was lower than that of revenue, mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin, the increase of R & D expenses and the decrease of income from asset disposal.
2) gross profit margin: in 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 2.73%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92 percentage points. Among them, the gross profit margin of training aircraft increased by 1.9 percentage points and that of other aviation products decreased by 2.7 percentage points. From the perspective of cost composition, the decrease of gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase of materials and external processing fees, which increases the proportion in revenue.
3) net interest rate: in 2021, the company's net interest rate was 2.1%, down 0.54 percentage points year-on-year. In addition to the decline in gross profit margin, other factors include the increase in R & D expenses and the decrease in income from asset disposal.
4) period expenses: during 2021, the expense rate was 0.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.98 percentage points, in which the management expense rate decreased and the financial income increased. The R & D expense rate is basically the same as that of the previous year.
The balance sheet side continues to show that the company has full orders on hand
In mid-2021, the company reaped large contract liabilities and transferred large prepayments to the upstream of the industrial chain. By the end of 2021, the company's contractual liabilities (6.9 billion) were basically equivalent to the end of the third quarter of 2021, and the prepayments (6.7 billion) increased by 32% compared with the end of the third quarter of 2021. Both indicators remain high, indicating that the company has full orders on hand.
Related party transactions indicate the rapid growth of the company's business scale in 2022
The company's affiliated sales account for a high proportion of revenue, which plays a guiding role in the growth of total revenue. The related sales volume in 2022 will increase by 68% compared with the actual amount in 2021, and the related purchase volume will increase by 75% compared with the actual amount in 2021. Both data indicate that the business scale of the company will grow rapidly in 2022.
At present, the aircraft host with the smallest market value and the trainer + defense products give birth to the varieties with the largest medium and long-term flexibility
1) the company's product jiao10 is the most advanced trainer in China. It is the key to the implementation of the new "two machine three-level" coaching system and enjoys the double benefits of "industry growth + share improvement". Relying on the only air to Surface Missile Research Institute in the aviation industry, defense products are driven by the dual drive of "new fighter aircraft assembly + increased actual combat training consumption", and the demand is even more urgent. In the future, the growth rate of revenue may surpass that of other aircraft hosts, increase the superimposed profit margin, and have great performance flexibility.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the compound growth rate of net profit is expected to exceed 50% in the next three years
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 230 / 360 / 520 million, with a year-on-year increase of 51% / 55% / 47%, EPS of RMB 0.32/0.50/0.73, PE of 88 / 56 / 38 times and PS of 1.9/1.4/1.1 times. Considering the high elasticity of future performance growth and historical PS center, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: product delivery is not as expected; The scale effect of product volume was less than expected.
