\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
On March 31, the company released its annual report for 2021, with a total revenue of 109.5 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.3%.
Business analysis
The main line of simultaneous rise in volume and price continued, and the construction of direct selling improved quality and increased speed. 1) In terms of products, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 93.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2%; The output of base liquor was 56500 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 12.4%; The sales volume was 36300 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.7%; The price per ton was 2.58 million yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%; Considering that the output of Maotai base liquor in 18 years was + 16% year-on-year, we believe that the volume in 22 years has a foundation. The revenue of series liquor was 12.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%; The price per ton was 420000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 24.2%; Since 17 years, the sales volume of series liquor has fluctuated around 30000 tons, and the price increase is mainly driven by the optimization of internal structure. 2) In terms of channels, the direct sales revenue was 24.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.5%; Revenue accounted for 22.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.7pct; The price per ton was 4.19 million yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 24.4%. The revenue of wholesale channels was 82.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.5%; The price per ton was 1.35 million yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of - 0.4%. Since the new management came to power, the quality and growth rate of direct sales channel construction has been improved. The direct sales revenue of 21q4 accounts for 30%, which is expected to continue to release energy in 22 years.
The profitability will be further improved, and the leading bargaining will be further confirmed. The net interest rate of the company in 21 years was 52.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.3pct. The gross profit margin was 91.5%, year-on-year + 0.1pct; The sales / management expense ratio was 2.5% / 7.7% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 0.1 / + 0.8pct; Taxes and surcharges accounted for 14.0%, a year-on-year increase of -0.2pct. The net cash inflow from operation in 21 years was 64.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.9%; By the end of the 21st century, the company's contractual liabilities were 12.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 4.5%, which is expected to be due to the delay in the payment rhythm of the Spring Festival in the 22nd year. Previously, the company has disclosed 22q1 performance and accelerated its successful start. Since the second half of the 21st year, the company has actively practiced market-oriented reform, the product matrix has become more mature from top to bottom, and the online e-commerce platform at the channel end will complement the offline channels. Under the current external risk disturbance, the leading business is still making steady progress. Under the high supply and demand gap, we are optimistic about the company's deterministic performance, and the five in one marketing policy will help the company develop rapidly in 22 years.
Profit and investment forecast
We have added a new 24-year profit forecast. It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 18.2% / 17.4% / 16.8% respectively, corresponding to net profit attributable to the parent company of 62 / 728 / 85.1 billion yuan; EPS is 49.37/57.96/67.71 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 35 / 30 / 26x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, channel reform is less than predicted, and food safety problems.
