\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Matters:
The company released the financial report for 2021 and achieved an operating revenue of 106190 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. Among them, the operating revenue of 2021q4 was 31.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 216.75 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total distribution of 27.228 billion yuan. In 2022, the company plans to increase its operating revenue by 15% and complete the capital construction investment of 6.97 billion yuan.
Ping An View:
Baijiu has been operating steadily and its performance has been growing steadily. In 2021, Maotai’s revenue was + 11.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 12.3% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 11.2% and 11.3% disclosed in the performance express. In the Spring Festival of 22, the company made a good start. According to the business data disclosed by the company, the operating revenue of 22q1 was about 33.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19%, the highest growth rate in recent three years. Under the background of high base and consumption scenarios impacted by the epidemic, the company still achieved brilliant growth, highlighting the company’s sustained growth and operational stability as an industry leader.
The liquor series maintained a high growth trend, and the proportion of direct sales increased by 9.9pct month on month. By product, the revenue of series liquor was + 26.1% to 12.595 billion yuan year-on-year, and that of Maotai liquor was + 10.2% to 93.465 billion yuan year-on-year. According to channel feedback, the company adopted a series of liquor reduction plans to stop the supply of some products and promote the optimization of product structure. In terms of channels, the direct selling / wholesale revenue was 24.029 billion yuan / 82.030 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 81.5% / + 0.6%, of which the direct selling ton price was + 24.4% to 4.1895 million yuan / ton. The company continued to deepen the reform of channel structure, and the proportion of direct sales in 21q4 increased by 9.9pct to 29.6% month on month, mainly due to the large volume of commercial supermarket channels. The proportion of direct sales in the whole year increased by 8.7pct to 22.6% year on year.
The ton price of Maotai increased steadily, and the contribution of non-standard new products increased. During the reporting period, the ton price contributed to the growth of the company’s main revenue. The shipment volume of Maotai liquor increased from + 5.68% to 36300 tons year-on-year, and the ton price increased by + 4.26% year-on-year; The year-on-year shipment volume of series liquor was + 1.46% to 30200 tons, and the ton price was + 24.25% year-on-year, mainly due to the large volume of non-standard new products such as the year of the tiger Zodiac liquor, Maotai 1935, treasure Maotai and so on. It is expected that in the future, driven by the upgrading of product structure, the ton price of Maotai liquor will continue the upward trend. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years was 91.54%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.13pct. During the period, the expense rate was 9.71%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.07pct, of which the sales expense rate was – 0.10pct to 2.50% and the management expense rate was + 0.80pct to 7.72% year-on-year. Under the effect of non-standard price increase and the proportion of direct sales, the company’s net profit margin increased from + 0.29pct to 52.47% year-on-year.
The short-term decline in the wholesale price is limited, and the long-term supply and demand gap remains. According to the national wine financial data, as of March 30, the wholesale prices of Feitian bulk bottles and boxes fell to 2630 yuan and 2820 yuan / bottle, down 130 yuan and 340 yuan respectively compared with the beginning of the month. The current round of price decline is mainly due to the repeated suppression of the epidemic in many places on the consumer sector, the superposition of the launch of Maotai’s new e-commerce platform, the market is worried about the loss of profits and irrational selling. At present, the price has shown a stabilizing trend. We believe that the subsequent price reductions are limited, mainly due to the current Baijiu consumption season, and the impact of the epidemic on the annual performance is limited. In the long run, the gap between supply and demand of Moutai is still in the end, and the high-end liquor scene is not changing.
Re layout the e-commerce platform to demonstrate the company’s determination to control prices. Recently, Maotai plans to launch the new e-commerce platform “I Maotai marketing app” on March 31, mainly selecting non-standard products (including tiger grass, treasures, Maotai 1935, etc.) to improve the proportion of direct sales channels. This is the re layout of Maotai e-commerce platform after Maotai e-commerce, the only official e-commerce operator, was established in 2014, demonstrating the company’s determination to firmly control the price. The new platform adopts the sales mode of online purchase and offline delivery to effectively control the circulation of goods and stabilize product prices. At the same time, selling through its own e-commerce platform is equivalent to raising prices in disguise, which is conducive to enhancing the company’s profits and driving the company’s operation for the better. During the reporting period, the number of dealers in China increased from 43 to 2089, mainly Maotai flavor series liquor dealers.
In 22 years, it is expected to increase both volume and price and maintain the “recommended” rating. After the new management of Maotai took office, it continued to practice market-oriented reform, continuously transmitted positive signals and opened a new road and journey. In 22 years, the company’s base liquor is expected to increase in volume, superimpose the large volume of non-standard products and new e-commerce platforms, and increase the proportion of direct sales channels, which is expected to increase both volume and price. Affected by the fluctuation of market sentiment, the current valuation of the company has fallen back to a reasonable range. We are optimistic about the long-term development ability of the company. We adjusted the EPS forecast from 2022 to 2024 to 48.94, 56.53 and 65.78 yuan respectively (the original EPS forecast from 2022 to 2023 was 48.85 and 56.74 yuan), maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) risk of macroeconomic weakness: economic growth declines and consumption upgrading does not meet expectations, resulting in the slowdown of consumption growth; 2) Baijiu industry downturn risk. Baijiu industry boom and price trend is highly correlated, if Baijiu prices decline, may cause the enterprise revenue growth slowed sharply. 3) Policy risk. The demand and tax rate of Baijiu industry are greatly influenced by policies. If the relevant policies change, it may have a greater impact on the company’s revenue and profits. 4) The risk of epidemic aggravation. The Baijiu consumption scenario is reduced when the epidemic intensifies, which may impact the Baijiu industry boom.
