\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
The company released the performance report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.47%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 151 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 37.65%. Corresponding to 21q4, the operating revenue was 654 million yuan, 24.65% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.45 million yuan, 37.9% year-on-year.
Comments:
The operation has improved month on month, and the gross profit margin is under pressure due to the price of raw materials. In a single quarter, the revenue of Yanjin 21q4 increased by nearly 25% month on month, the net profit margin of 21q4 sales recovered to 11.23%, and the profitability gradually improved. The overall 21-year reform has been reflected in Q4. However, under the influence of the sharp rise in the prices of upstream raw materials such as flour and packaging materials and the launch of new products, the gross profit margin continued to be under pressure, and the same caliber decreased by 7.5pct to 35.72% in 21 years.
The growth rate of deep-sea snacks is bright, and the ton price of categories has declined. In terms of categories, baking (including potato chips) / deep-sea snacks / meat products / bean products / dried fruits / candied fried goods / vegetarian food were 11% / 37% / 23% / 5% / 37% / - 17% / 42% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate of deep-sea snacks, meat and fish products, dried fruits and other categories was relatively bright. The cultivation of new categories of spicy brine and deep-sea snacks is expected to have achieved initial results. The subsequent acceleration in large quantities is expected, and the overall potential of candied fried goods is downward. The price per ton of baked / frozen surimi / meat products / candied fruit / vegetarian food is 2.16/1.99/3.98/1.2427300/ton respectively. Except for deep-sea snack products, there is a certain decline. It is expected that it is related to the sinking of the company's channels and the corresponding emphasis on the cost performance of various categories. For deep-sea snacks, there is no absolute strong leader in the current market. The company can accelerate to obtain market share through supply chain and brand advantages.
The proportion of distribution channels continued to increase, and the number of dealers increased significantly. In terms of channels, in the past 21 years, the direct business supermarket / distribution / e-commerce channels achieved revenue of RMB 659 million / 1483 million / 139 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.6% / + 21.7% / + 27.1%. Affected by channel reform and partial conversion to franchising, the growth rate of direct business supermarket slowed down, and the proportion fell to 29%. However, compared with peers, the proportion is still high, and the benchmark effect of brand tree is good. By accelerating the sinking of channels, the company has increased the number of dealers from 880 to 1749 in 21 years. At the same time, it has actively entered the chain snack industry such as busy snacks. The distribution channels have still achieved good growth, and the adjustment of e-commerce channels has shown preliminary results. In terms of subregions, central China (including Jiangxi) / South China / East China / Southwest (North) region achieved revenue of RMB 1.023/4.55/4/322 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.67% / 17.05% / 9.78% / 18.96%. The central China base market still maintained strong growth. In terms of the number of new dealers, central China / East China / Southwest / South China / Northwest / North China / Northeast increased 152 / 202 / 187 / 123 / 71 / 72 / 62 respectively, radiating around the central China base camp and gradually promoting national expansion.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in the past 21 years, the company has been affected by channel reform and new product cultivation, and its short-term performance is under pressure. However, the company has actively reformed, accelerated channel sinking at the channel end, focused on core large items at the category end, and launched quantitative packaging such as spicy brine and deep-sea snacks. Q4 performance has had a certain effect. Previously, the equity incentive lowered the performance target for 22-23 years. The target is pragmatic and is expected to be unlocked smoothly. We expect the earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 2.45, 3.53 and 4.84 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk factors: the cultivation of quantitative packaging does not meet expectations; The cost of supermarket channels increased; The competition of Zhongdao model intensifies; Food safety issues.
