\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
The company issued the annual report for 2021. The report shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.890 billion yuan (YoY + 18.33%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 558 million yuan (YoY + 20.28%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 526 million yuan (yoy + 16.69%); Among them, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 874 million yuan (YoY + 20.58%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 114 million yuan (YoY + 9.50%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 95 million yuan (YoY + 4.42%), and the performance basically met the expectations. In addition, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders.
Key investment points:
The number of moon cakes and quick-frozen series increased steadily, and the 14th five year plan made a good start. Moon cake business: in 2021, the revenue of moon cake business reached 1.521 billion yuan (YoY + 10.36%), which still maintained a steady growth of more than 10% on the basis of the high base in 2020. Despite the adverse impact of the early Mid Autumn Festival Schedule and limited early publicity effect, the smooth trend of end consumer demand release and inventory removal has not decreased; At the same time, the moon cake production capacity of Guangzhou and Xiangtan bases at the supply side has realized cross regional coordination and linkage, the production capacity of Xiangtan base has been further improved, and the production and marketing capacity has been accumulated. Quick freezing business: in 2021, the revenue was 848 million yuan (YoY + 9.40%), the annual price increased steadily, the sales volume reached 35000 tons (YoY + 8%), the average price remained at 24 yuan / kg, optimistic about the future market expectation, and actively accumulated inventory under the condition of higher sales. The normal growth of quick-frozen Series in the past 21 years was mainly due to the innovation of product portfolio model and the decentralized epidemic situation. The “house economy” boosted consumer demand; Some production capacity at the supply side, such as Guangzhou and Maoming bases, further increased production capacity through technological transformation, which strongly supported the growth of quick-frozen food sales. The quick-frozen food production project of phase II of Xiangtan base is currently being designed to lay a production capacity foundation for the growth of quick-frozen food in the 14th five year plan.
Counter trend expansion of catering business, taotaoju mixed reform + store integration, creating a new growth point. In 2021, the catering sector achieved a revenue of 725 million yuan (YoY + 48.32%), with a low data base in the same period of 20 years, and the operating performance Q3 of 6 catering stores was included in the consolidated statement, resulting in strong growth in revenue Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) steadily renovated and expanded stores, and upgraded two main stores; Newly opened Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) Shenzhen stores and Foshan stores. In terms of taotaoju, taotaoju company increased capital and shares, introduced strategic investors, and acquired 6 taotaoju authorized stores to complete the integration. Taotaoju, as the representative of Cantonese tea, has guaranteed products and flow, which can effectively promote the continuous expansion of the company’s catering business. We believe that the introduction of war investment and the acquisition of stores will help to improve the scale of the company’s catering business and lay a foundation for the further development of time-honored restaurants.
Online channels increased rapidly and maintained a high proportion in the province. The company’s direct sales / distribution revenue in the past 21 years was + 26.54% / + 12.59% year-on-year respectively, with more than 350 new dealers, and the online sales revenue reached 820 million yuan (YoY + 40%), accounting for 21.11%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.26pcts. Driven by the brilliant online sales performance and dealer expansion, the company’s revenue inside and outside the province increased steadily. The annual revenue in the province was 2.913 billion yuan (YoY + 19%), accounting for 75.72%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.64pcts; The revenue outside Guangdong Province reached 890 million yuan (YoY + 16%), accounting for 23.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.46pcts.
The gross profit margin decreased slightly, and the cost control during the period was effective: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 37.83%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.50pcts. It is expected that the increase in the proportion of low gross profit margin businesses such as catering and quick freezing is mainly due to the increase in the price of some raw materials. The cost control of the company was effective, and the cost rate fell year-on-year throughout the year. In terms of breakdown, the cost rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were 9.33% / 9.75% / 1.99% / – 0.62% respectively, and + 0.10 / – 0.85 / – 0.36 / – 0.10pcts year-on-year. Overall, the company’s net interest rate was 14.52%, an increase of 0.41pcts year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 654 / 758 / 859 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17% / 16% / 13%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.15/1.34/1.51/share, and the corresponding PE price on March 30 will be 18 / 16 / 14 times. The company adheres to the coordinated development of the dual main businesses of “food + catering”, the business in the province has increased steadily, and the business growth outside the province can be expected. Considering the growth momentum brought by catering and quick freezing business to the company, compared with comparable food companies, the valuation cost performance is higher, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk factors: macroeconomic downside risk, food safety risk, raw material rise risk, production capacity release and sales growth mismatch risk
