\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Key points
Event: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 30.167 billion yuan, yoy + 8.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, yoy + 43.34%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.21 billion yuan, yoy + 21.5%. Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, yoy + 1.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 460 million yuan, narrower than the loss of – 780 million yuan in 20q4; Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company – 1.01 billion yuan (loss of 860 million yuan in the same period in 2020).
The product structure has been continuously optimized and the main brand has performed brilliantly. In terms of split volume and price, the company’s ton volume / ton wine price increased by 7.2% and 4.9% respectively in 2021. In terms of products, the company’s main brand Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) achieved a total sales volume of 4.33 million kiloliters, yoy + 11.6%; Other brands achieved sales of 3.6 million kiloliters, yoy-8.7%, and the main brands showed strong growth momentum. In terms of grades, the sales volume of high-end and above products is 520000 kiloliters, yoy + 14.2%. High-end products including white beer, Pearson and 1903 have a bright performance. In terms of regions, the company’s main sales areas Shandong / North China / South China / East China achieved revenue of 19.7/73/34/2.8 billion yuan, yoy + 10% / + 12% / + 3% / – 0.4%. The base Market in Shandong and North China has a bright performance.
In 2021, the company’s annual gross profit margin was 36.71%. After excluding the impact of accounting standard adjustment, it was + 1.28pct year-on-year. The upgrading of product portfolio led to the improvement of gross profit margin. On the expense side, the company increased the investment in sales expenses, and the sales expense rate increased. The company’s sales expense rate was 13.58%, year-on-year + 0.71pct; The company’s expense management ability was strengthened, and the management expense rate was 5.61%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.43pct. During the reporting period, benefiting from the improvement of product structure and the increase of gross profit margin, the net profit margin of the company increased by 0.9pcts to 9.9% year-on-year.
The epidemic repeatedly brings short-term resistance, and the long-term high-end trend remains unchanged. From the performance of this year, the sales of Tsingtao beer from January to February achieved a good start, and the sales volume increased by a high number of units year-on-year. In March, affected by the repeated epidemic, the company’s main sales areas in Shandong and East China were affected to varying degrees, and the sales volume in a single month may decline significantly. However, the current time point is the off-season of beer consumption. If the epidemic can be controlled, the impact on the annual sales volume is still controllable. From the performance of high-end beer in Qingdao in the past 21 years, the main single products white beer, Pearson and 1903 all showed strong momentum, and this trend continued from January to February of the 22nd year. Although it is disturbed by the epidemic in the short term, we can see that the upgrading trend of the beer industry is strong, and the price band of 8-15 yuan is fast and large-scale. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities after the epidemic is alleviated.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that there is still great uncertainty about the epidemic control and the recovery of terminal demand, we lowered the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 to RMB 3.222/3.807 billion (compared with the previous time (- 7.4% / – 6.2%) and introduced the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to RMB 4.443 billion, equivalent to EPS of RMB 2.36/2.79/3.26 in 202224 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 202224 to 34x / 29x / 24x respectively, In the past 22 years, PE has fallen below the valuation center in recent three years and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the high-end process was lower than expected.
