\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 241 Goertek Inc(002241) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 78.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.47%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.09%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 3.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.91%.
In the first quarter of 2022, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 869966 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0% – 10%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 842902 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% – 50%.
The coordinated development of parts + complete machine can resist the pain of the transition of consumer electronics industry to the future mobile era. As the growth of the smart phone market slows down, global consumer electronics brand manufacturers continue to seek smart terminal products for breaking the situation, such as smart watches, TWS headphones, AR / VR glasses, etc., but from the situation in the past two years, they have achieved little. During the transition of the whole industry from the era of mobile Internet to the era of Internet of things, the company continues to promote the strategy of coordinated development of “parts + complete machine”. In 2021, precision parts The business of intelligent acoustic machine and intelligent hardware realized an operating revenue of RMB 13.84 billion, 30.297 billion and 32.809 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13.39%, 13.58% and 85.87% respectively, which resisted the pain caused by the transition of the industry to a certain extent. In particular, from 2021q4 to 2022q1, the global shipment of smart phones declined seriously, and the upstream raw materials experienced disorderly price increases. Under this environment, the company was able to hand over the report card of significant growth in non parent net profit in the first quarter (the parent net profit was subject to the change in the fair value of kopin Corporation’s equity investment, etc.), which is not easy, reflecting the company’s boldness in developing strategic changes and the immediate effect of implementation against the wind of the industry, Show strong execution.
In the first year of the outbreak of VR / AR industry, the company’s card position advantage is clear. According to the statistics of counterpoint, in 2021, the global shipment of VR / AR glasses reached 11 million units, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. Oculusquest2 performed particularly well in the consumer field and Pico in the enterprise field. Goethe, as an assembly supplier of related brand products, clearly benefited. At present, the global mainstream intelligent terminal brand manufacturers and Internet giants have successively laid out VR / AR glasses. In particular, if Apple launches ar products as scheduled in the second half of this year, it will play a positive role in promoting the ecology and user experience of the industry. The VR / AR glasses industry is expected to usher in a rapid growth period. Counterpoint predicts that the global shipment of VR / AR glasses is expected to exceed 100 million units in 2025. As one of the pioneers in the VR / AR industry chain, the company has a good technical accumulation in parts, complete machine assembly and other aspects. Among the fixed increase projects, VR / AR related projects are expected to enter the climbing state this year. The current card position advantage has been quite clear, and it is expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of the industry in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: maintain the buy rating. The whole machine assembly of intelligent wearable and IOT products and related precision parts and components have long-term growth potential, which is the main support for the elasticity of the company’s future performance. It is predicted that the company’s net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.957 billion, 7.445 billion and 9.011 billion respectively, and the current share price corresponds to pe2.01 billion 90, 16.73 and 13.82 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: (1) affected by the global economic downturn, consumption degradation and epidemic spread, the downstream market sales sustainability of the company’s important customers is less than expected;; (2) For wearable terminal products such as TWS, AR / VR and watch, the marketing and promotion efforts of some downstream brand customers are less than expected
