\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 405 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) )
Event overview
Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) 3 on the evening of March 30, the annual performance express of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022 were released. In 2021, the operating revenue was about 3.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.48%; The net profit attributable to the listed company is about RMB 2.2 billion. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter of 2022 will be 103782 million yuan ~ 134917 million yuan, turning losses into profits. In 2022q1, the basic earnings per share ranged from 0.0044 yuan to 0.0057 yuan, and the basic earnings per share loss in the same period of last year was 0.022 yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
2021 is a turning year for the company’s business + performance, with the highest growth rate of revenue in recent five years
In 2021, the company’s revenue increased rapidly, mainly from the significant growth of smart cloud revenue, benefiting from the growth of sales of key models of major OEM customers and the accelerated implementation of location big data government enterprise cooperation projects. In 2021, the company formed a new business system of smart cloud, smart drive, smart cabin and smart core:
1. Smart cloud: it mainly includes navigation business, derived location big data, compliance platform business, etc., which is the turning point of the company’s business. We believe that the inflection point of the company’s core business lies in the emergence of its data compliance business, the crowding effect on other businesses, and the high prosperity of the company’s navigation business.
2. Intelligent driving: the company has been equipped with Tier-1 product matrix and service capability of automatic driving software and hardware integrated solution for all scenarios, and the commercial mass production cooperation is increasing. At present, the company’s main designated partners include Kaiyi new energy, etc.
3. Smart Cabin: provide a series of intelligent cockpit products and solutions integrating front mounted software and hardware for the depot.
4. Smart core: in 2021, the shipment volume and revenue contribution of four-dimensional vehicle specification MCU increased by more than ten times compared with that in 2020, and the shipment volume of other chip products increased steadily. However, the shortage of automobile chip production capacity restrained the short-term growth of the company’s chip business to a certain extent. We believe that the company’s chip business is another highlight of the company. As an independent brand of automobile chip, jiefa technology’s scarcity and core competence shape strong competitive barriers. At the same time, the synergy between chip business and navigation business can not be ignored.
The performance of Q1 in 22 years turned losses into profits, and multi-party cooperation confirmed the high prosperity of demand
Siwei turned losses into profits in 2022q1 (losses occurred in 20q1 and 21q1). The net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was 103782 million yuan ~ 134917 million yuan. We believe that the repeated epidemic in China in the first quarter of this year has had a certain delay effect on the acceptance and revenue confirmation of the company’s projects, but it is mainly a short-term impact.
According to the company’s performance forecast, this year Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) has made great achievements in major car factories and new forces, and its map, compliance, automatic driving and other businesses have entered China’s head independent brand. According to Tencent News and the company’s statement on the investor interaction platform on March 24, the company has reached cooperation, including: 1) providing L3 level automatic driving high-precision map “data + engine” products for the self driving commercial vehicle project mass produced by yingche technology at the end of 2021; 2) Work with Xiaoma Zhixing to create intelligent driving software and hardware solutions, and conduct comprehensive cooperation in the fields of high-precision map and positioning. The multi-party cooperation not only confirms the company’s core competitive strength in the fields of navigation and positioning, but also shows the demand boom of the intelligent driving industry. From traditional car factories to start-ups, there is a high demand for the company’s core business, and the space potential of the four-dimensional business may be much higher than the market cognition.
Pay attention to the full service driving of intelligent driving brought by the scarcity of company map + chips!
Once again, we emphasize the strong synergy brought by the company’s highly scarce navigation + chip business linkage.
1. Map scarcity: it is recognized by leading car enterprises and has a wide demand for map capacity Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) is the first cartographer in China to obtain class a surveying and mapping qualification. Cartographers with license qualification and high-precision mapping ability are highly scarce. The company’s digital security platform business came into being with a superior profit model.
2. Chip scarcity: jiefa cockpit chip has entered the front loading market and can be expected in large quantities. Jiefa technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of 4D, was born in the vehicle chip Department of MediaTek, and the vehicle chips are highly scarce in terms of independent control. Jiefa chip will continue to benefit from the localization and replacement of chips, and continue to expand the market and promote the growth of the company with its own strength and cost performance.
3. Business closed-loop connection: collaborative ability brings total growth of the whole business. The company has signed with leading car companies in high-precision map, automatic driving development platform, map compilation and other businesses in recent half a year, confirming the full growth of the business catalyzed by the scarcity of the company. We think the company has entered the fast lane of development!
Investment advice
Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as a leader in automotive intelligence with “national team background”, it will give priority to the improvement of road traffic, passenger cars and other intelligence. In combination with the company’s performance express, we raised the company’s expectation of operating income of RMB 3.0/39.7/5.21 billion in 21-23 to RMB 3.06/39.7/5.21 billion, and raised the company’s expectation of earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.05/0.17/0.34 in 21-23 to RMB 0.05/0.20/0.36, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 14.12/share on March 30, 2022. PE is 276 / 72 / 39 times and PS is 11 / 8 / 6 times respectively, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk tips
1) risk of new product / business promotion falling short of expectations. 2) The risk of tight global supply of automotive chips. 3) The risk of macroeconomic downturn is that the development of smart car industry is less than expected.
