\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 111 Air China Limited(601111) )
Core view
Air China Limited(601111) disclosed the annual report of 2021: Air China Limited(601111) disclosed the annual report of 2021, the annual operating revenue was 74.53 billion, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, of which the operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 17.07 billion, a decrease of 18.9% year-on-year; The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was -16.64 billion and the loss increased by 2.23 billion year-on-year, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was -6.32 billion and the loss increased by 2.02 billion year-on-year.
The epidemic situation was frequently disturbed, the volume and price increased steadily, and the income increased by 7.2% year-on-year. In 2021, the epidemic situation was frequently disturbed, and the company’s core base Beijing market was more strict due to the epidemic prevention policy. The company’s annual passenger transport capacity fell slightly by 2.3% year-on-year, the passenger turnover fell by 4.7% year-on-year, the passenger occupancy rate was 68.63%, and the year-on-year decline was 1.74pct. Among them, the business volume of China line increased year-on-year, and the business volume of international line still recorded a significant decline. There is pressure on the operation of the industry. All companies have strengthened revenue management, superimposed with the change of passenger structure of China line and the high freight rate of international line, the annual passenger kilometer revenue of the company has increased by nearly 10% year-on-year and 4.4% compared with 2019. In addition, the high prosperity of cargo and mail boosted the company’s revenue, and the overall revenue increased by 7.2% year-on-year.
The cost of aviation fuel increased significantly, the cost was basically stable, and the performance loss continued. In 2021, the oil price rose as a whole. The annual aviation fuel cost of the company was 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%, and the aviation fuel cost per ask increased by 43% to 0.1358 yuan. In terms of non oil costs, due to the relatively high proportion of fixed costs, the company’s operation and investment fell year-on-year, and the non oil cost per ask also increased to 0.4372 yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year. On the expense side, the company’s sales, management and R & D expenses are basically stable, the expense rate level fluctuates little, the financial expenses have increased significantly due to the year-on-year decline in exchange gains and losses, and the financial expenses of foreign exchange deduction have increased slightly, with no significant fluctuation. Due to the significant loss reduction of Cathay Pacific Airlines, the company’s investment income was -746 million, and the investment loss decreased by 5.17 billion year-on-year, with little change in other subjects. Subject to the situation of unlimited international price under the background of China’s demand fluctuation and almost closed door under the repeated epidemic, the company’s performance loss continues and the loss range increases.
The uncertainty continues in 2022, and we are optimistic about the cycle elasticity after the end of the epidemic. In 2022, the policy level adheres to the dynamic clearing strategy. There is still the possibility of repeated epidemics in various places, and the uncertainty of civil aviation demand recovery still exists, but the industrial supply tightening has appeared and will continue, creating preconditions for cycle reversal. If the decision-making level changes its strategy after weighing the advantages and disadvantages, civil aviation will have great upward flexibility. Once the cycle of Chinese airlines reverses, it is expected to create the highest performance in history.
Risk tip: the macro-economy has fallen more than expected, the oil price has risen sharply, the exchange rate fluctuates sharply, and safety accidents
Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating. Considering that the impact of repeated outbreaks in China continues to exceed our expectations and the time point of comprehensive recovery may be delayed, the profit forecast for 20222023 is lowered from 2.12 billion and 15.68 billion to -10.71 billion and 2.6 billion. The profit forecast for 2024 is introduced, and the company’s performance is expected to be 18.58 billion in 2024. We continue to be optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand after the epidemic subsides and maintain the “buy” rating.
