\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 933 Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) )
Yonghui's growth logic always comes from the transformation of fresh food channels and the concentration of supermarket formats. The company was founded in Fujian in 2001. Starting from the popular supermarket with the differentiated orientation of fresh food, the company provides low-cost and high-quality fresh food by means of national unified mining and direct marketing and direct mining, and the policy of changing agriculture to supermarket has sprung up rapidly; In 2004, the company began to expand from Fujian to the whole country and successively entered 29 provinces such as Chongqing, Beijing and Anhui. Up to now, the company has experienced the ups and downs of China's supermarket channel reform, but its growth logic always comes from the following two points: 1) the transformation of China's fresh food channel; 2) The pattern of supermarket business (including various business models) is centralized. Resumption of historical stock price: Exhibition store, same store, operating efficiency and cash flow are the key tracking indicators, and the growth expectation improves the valuation.
Our understanding of community group buying: for Internet giants, it is a more efficient model than before, but so far it has not created the highest overall supply chain efficiency. The community group purchase mode has grown rapidly since the second half of 2020. Through the "pre-sale + self delivery + next day arrival" mode, its terminal model has more efficiency advantages compared with the vegetable market and individual merchants. If it is not expansion, it can realize model profits through regional scale, density and operation capacity. For Internet giants, it is a more efficient mode to seize fresh channels than before. However, up to now, compared with Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) and other strong fresh supply chain supermarkets, it has not created a richer overall commodity selection and higher supply chain efficiency, but it is indeed a strong competitor in the future.
At present, the company's long-term logic is expected to improve, which is confirmed by short-term data. It is expected to meet the marginal benefits in the future. On the one hand, since 2020, due to repeated epidemics, production and operation and other reasons, China's economic growth and consumption growth have received certain challenges. Since 2022, various government meetings have continued to strengthen the goal of "stable growth", encourage and support people's livelihood enterprises and enterprises greatly affected by the epidemic, and do not encourage negative gross profit operation in terms of community group purchase; On the other hand, from the point of view of Internet companies themselves, after adjusting their business efficiency and profit structure, the pursuit of high quality development is also the direction of their development this year. In this context, the logic expectation of the company's chief executive is expected to improve; In addition, the company previously announced that the operating data from January to February are excellent, and considering the changes in fresh prices such as corporate responsibility in the epidemic and subsequent pig prices, it is expected to meet the marginal benefits again.
Investment suggestion: the company is the leader of the offline supermarket of Johnson & Johnson fresh supply chain. Since the second half of 2020, new channels such as community group purchase have attacked, and the company's operation has been challenged. At present, the company's competitive environment has improved, the business data from January to February have improved significantly, and the follow-up is expected to continue. It is estimated that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be about 90 billion / 97.2 billion / 103 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.43% / + 8.00% / 6.00%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is -3.738 billion yuan / 358 million yuan / 512 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is -0.41 yuan / share, 0.04 yuan / share and 0.06 yuan / share respectively. The "buy" rating is given for the first time, and the target price is 4.96 yuan / share (corresponding to about 0.45-0.5 times PS in 2022).
Risk tip: the industry competition is obviously intensified; The improvement of the company's operation is less than expected; Grassroots survey data may have errors in practice.
