\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 928 China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) )
Business data: in the second half of the year, comprehensive and strict safety investigation and rectification measures were taken, and the transportation capacity decreased significantly
In 2021, ask and RPK of the company were – 20% and – 17% year-on-year respectively, and the seating rate was 72.36%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.72 PCT; The average daily utilization rate was 5.81 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. For H1 and H2, ask of the company increased by + 10% and – 43% respectively year-on-year, mainly because the company took comprehensive and strict safety investigation and rectification measures in the second half of the year; The RPK of q1-4 company was – 6%, – 2%, – 38% and – 62% respectively compared with that in 19 years. Q1 was affected by the local Spring Festival and the continuous local epidemic in the second half of the year; H2 occupancy rate was 72.5%, down 2pct year-on-year. By the end of 2021, the company had a fleet of 58 aircraft (including 3 ARJ21), with a net increase of 4. 143 routes are flying to China, with branch routes accounting for 99%, a year-on-year decrease of 25; Among them, there were 127 solo routes, with a year-on-year decrease of 24, accounting for 89%, which was basically the same.
Performance in 2021: the unit ask cost increased significantly, the regional aviation subsidy + aircraft sale thickened, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 was about 260 million yuan
Revenue side: the proportion of all-way sales has further increased, and the proportion of institutional capacity sales revenue has slightly decreased. 1) In 2021, the revenue per passenger kilometer calculated by personal passenger revenue was 0.405 yuan / – 1.38%, mainly because the repeated epidemic had a great impact on the demand for leisure tourism. 2) In 2021, the revenue from personal sales, institutional sales and other distribution modes accounted for – 18%, – 23% and + 77% respectively, accounting for 63.4%, 28.9% and 7.4% respectively. 3) The number of people traveling through the city reached 832000, a year-on-year increase of 13%, accounting for 16.5% of the total number of passengers. In the past 21 years, the company has added 13 airports for full-distance service and opened full-distance flights at 89 airports.
Cost and expense side: in 2021, the oil price showed an upward trend quarter by quarter. The average CIF price of imported kerosene throughout the year was 4356 yuan, an increase of 39% year-on-year. The company’s unit ask aviation oil cost is 0.105 yuan / + 28%, and the unit ask non oil cost is 0.302 yuan / + 20%. Among them, the fee charged by the Civil Aviation Administration was + 62% year-on-year, mainly because the Civil Aviation Development Fund was resumed in 2021. In addition, due to the continuous appreciation of RMB, the company’s net exchange gain in 2021 was 66.92 million yuan, an increase of 37.72 million yuan year-on-year.
Profit side: in 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of – 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 710 million yuan. In Q4, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 32 million yuan / – 92.7%. In December 2021, the company sold and leased three crj-900ng aircraft to Wuhu airport, with a net price of 356 million yuan. Under the new leasing standards, the impact of this part of profit and loss on Q4 is about 10 million yuan; Q4 of the company received a government subsidy of 293 million yuan, which is a regional aviation subsidy, increasing the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company by 250 million yuan. Excluding the influence of these two factors, the actual net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is about – 228 million yuan.
Profit forecast and valuation
In 2021, the company implemented safe production and reduced transportation capacity. In the past 22 years, the company’s daily flight fleet continued to recover, taking the lead in benefiting from the recovery of Chinese market demand. It is expected that the company’s performance in the past 22 years is expected to improve month on month. As the leader of regional airlines, monopolizing multiple regional route resources, the company will fully benefit from the recovery cycle of the industry and have broad space for long-term development. We expect that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 380 million, RMB 950 million and RMB 1.11 billion, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tips
The recovery of industry demand is less than expected, subsidies are less than expected, policies are less than expected, etc.
