\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Key elements of the report:
On March 31, the company issued its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating revenue of 109464 billion yuan (YoY + 11.71%), net profit attributable to parent company of 52.460 billion yuan (YoY + 12.34%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 52.581 billion yuan (YoY + 11.84%), revenue and net profit attributable to parent company maintained double-digit growth, and the scale of revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time.
Key investment points:
Q4's performance was better than that of the whole year, and the increased investment of Maotai liquor drove the growth of revenue. In Q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 32.411 billion yuan (YoY + 14.05%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.194 billion yuan (YoY + 18.06%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 15.224 billion yuan (YoY + 16.09%), and the year-on-year growth rate of the single quarter was better than the annual average. In 2021, Maotai liquor and series liquor achieved revenue of 93.465/12.595 billion yuan (YoY + 10.18 / + 26.06%), accounting for 88.12% / 11,88% of the annual revenue respectively In the fourth quarter, Maotai liquor and series liquor achieved revenue of 28.473/3.055 billion yuan (YoY + 15.34% / + 2.14%) respectively, accounting for 90.31% / 9.69% of Q4's total operating revenue respectively. In the fourth quarter, Maotai liquor was put into operation, and the ton price rose, driving the increase of sales revenue.
Optimize and upgrade the product structure and speed up the layout of brewing raw material seed industry. From the end of 2021 to the beginning of this year, Maotai successively launched new products to help optimize and upgrade the product structure, accurately launch products and improve the market share. On December 29, 2021, the new "treasure" was grandly launched. The new product has a clear positioning and the wine quality is slightly higher than that of aging; At the beginning of 2022, the year of the Tiger Chinese Zodiac liquor was officially released and listed. The two non-standard Maotai liquor impacted the ultra-high-end positioning and promoted the price of Maotai liquor. In addition, during the Spring Festival this year, Maotai 1935, a heavyweight member of "Maotai Maotai flavor, stock production", was officially released, and the retail guide price fell to the price band of 1000 yuan. In 2022, the company officially entered the seed industry market and laid out the seed business of brewing raw materials, further laying a solid foundation for the company to cover the whole brewing industry chain.
We will continue to deepen channel reform and increase the online distribution of direct sales. Since Xinshuai took office in the second half of 2021, the company has continued to deepen channel reform and increase the scale of direct sales. In 2021, the company's direct sales revenue reached 24.029 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 81.49%, accounting for 22.66% of the annual revenue, an increase of 8.69 PCTs over 2020. 21q4 direct sales achieved a revenue of 9.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.38%, accounting for nearly 30% of Q4 revenue. Recently, Moutai official account announced that the official marketing number APP "I Moutai" will start trial operation in March 31st. After "I Moutai" was launched, it would jump the top of AppStore free list soon. The company changed its traditional offline sales mode, actively explored the direct selling channel of e-commerce, and improved product penetration.
The profit level remained stable, and the expense rate increased slightly year-on-year. The company's profitability remained stable for 21 years, with a gross profit margin of 91.54%, a year-on-year increase of 0.13pcts, mainly due to the increase in the gross profit margin of Maotai liquor and series liquor, and the gross profit margin of series liquor increased significantly. During the period, the expense rate increased slightly year-on-year, among which the management expense rate increased by 0.81pcts to 7.96% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of employee salary and maintenance expenses in the current period. In addition, the sales expense ratio and financial expense ratio decreased by 0.1pcts and 0.63pcts respectively year-on-year, driving the net interest rate to increase by 0.29pcts to 52.47% year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company recently released the operating data of the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that the revenue of 22q1 will increase by 18% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent will increase by 19% year-on-year, and the performance is bright, ushering in a good start. The company's revenue growth target of 15% in 22 years is a high probability event, and the extremely deep moat is a strong support for the company's growth certainty. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 61.649/71.579/82.624 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 18% / 16% / 15%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 49.08/56.98/65.77/share, corresponding to PE of 35 / 30 / 26 times on March 30, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk factors: macroeconomic downside risk, the risk that the promotion of direct selling is less than expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, and the risk of food safety.
