\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event description
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) disclosed in the annual report, the company's total operating revenue in 2021 was 109464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%; In 2021, the net profit was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%; It is proposed to distribute 216.75 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total profit of 27.228 billion yuan.
Event comments
Double digit growth in 2021 and a good start in 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 109.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, slightly exceeding the performance forecast. Among them, single 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 32.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.05%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.09%, accelerating the growth month on month. 1) In terms of products, the growth rate of series liquor is fast. In 2021, the revenue of Maotai Liquor / Series liquor was 93.46/12.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2% / + 26.1%, and the sales volume was 3.630000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.7% / + 1.5%; Ton price was + 4.3% / + 24.2% year-on-year. 2) from the perspective of sub channels, the proportion of direct sales continued to increase. In 2021, the revenue from direct selling / wholesale reached 24.03/82.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.5% / + 0.55%, and the proportion of direct selling was 22.7%, a year-on-year increase of + 8.7pct. In addition, the revenue and profit of 22q1 increased by about 18% / 19% year-on-year respectively, and continued the good momentum of 21q4. The main reason is that the company took the initiative to overcome difficulties, fought the "active war" with an enterprising attitude and effective measures, the product sales momentum was good, the market showed a strong sales trend, and successfully realized the "stable opening" and "good opening".
The large volume of non-standard products and the improvement of direct sales channels drive the increase of net interest rate. In 2021, the company's net interest rate was 52.47%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.29ppct. Specifically, 1) the gross profit margin was 91.54%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.13pct, mainly due to the large volume of non-standard products in Maotai liquor and the increase in the proportion of direct channels. 2) The expenses during the sales period were 9.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.07pct, of which the sales expense rate was 2.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; The management expense ratio was 7.78%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8pct, mainly due to the increase of employee salary and maintenance expenses in the current period; The financial expense ratio was - 0.85%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.61pct, mainly due to the increase of interest income on deposits of commercial banks in the current period; The R & D expense rate was 0.06%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.01pct.
"I Maotai" was put into trial operation on March 31, and the marketing reform took another step. According to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) official wechat news, the "I Maotai" digital marketing app created by Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd. will be officially launched and put into trial operation on March 31, 2022. Consumers can make an appointment to purchase the year of the tiger Zodiac Maotai / Maotai 1935 / rare Maotai. Feitian Maotai will not be sold temporarily. At the same time, it will be integrated into 12 third-party e-commerce platforms to provide rush purchase information for purchasing Feitian Maotai liquor. This is the company's digital integration, the implementation of digital marketing law, and speed up the completion of the new retail short board.
The operation in 2021 exceeded the target at the beginning of the year, and the growth is expected to accelerate in 2022. 2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. The business goal of 2021 is to increase the total operating revenue by about 10.5% over the previous year, and the total operating revenue in 2021 exceeds the target at the beginning of the year. In addition, the business objectives for 2022 are: 1) the total operating revenue will increase by about 15% at the same time, and 2) the capital construction investment will be 6.969 billion yuan. The performance is expected to accelerate in 2022: first, the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) marketing reform is expected to be strong, and the new Commander takes office to convey confidence in development to the market, especially answering questions about the reform of marketing system and price system concerned by the market; Second, due to the constraints of production capacity supply, the output growth of Maotai base liquor was slow from 16 to 18, and the bottleneck of volume growth in 2022 is expected to be broken. Third, the increase in the proportion of direct channels and the prominent effect of price increase of non-standard products have helped Maotai accelerate its growth.
Investment advice
In the short term, the setting tone is stable, the proportion of direct marketing channels is increased, and the price of non-standard products is increased. It will end smoothly in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, the new commander will take office, and the marketing reform may be accelerated to become a new growth point of performance. In the medium and long term, we believe that the scarcity of Maotai and the safety cushion built by the moat with high channel profits have helped the company grow continuously. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52.475 billion, 60.845 billion and 70.488 billion, and the EPS will be 41.77 yuan, 48.44 yuan and 56.11 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price, PE will be 41 times, 35 times and 30 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
There are risks
Food safety risk, the risk of sharp decline in the price of high-end wine caused by the macroeconomic downturn, and the development of the epidemic exceeded expectations
