\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 623 Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) )
Event overview. The company issued the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 54 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 60.80%; The corresponding Q4 revenue was 619 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.65%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 79.47%.
The sales volume of photovoltaic glass increased significantly, the price was under pressure, and the gross profit margin narrowed. The company’s performance is slightly lower than the lower limit of the previously issued performance guidelines. Due to the growth of the original production capacity of the parent company Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) technology group, the sales volume of photovoltaic glass of the company achieved rapid growth in 2021. According to the disclosure of the annual report, in 2021, the sales volume of photovoltaic glass of the company was 72.1 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 36.6%, and the original film supply of the company tended to be stable; In 2021, the company’s photovoltaic glass cost decreased by about 2 yuan / m2 year-on-year, and the selling price decreased by about 5 yuan / m2 to 24 yuan / m2 year-on-year, narrowing the gross profit margin of photovoltaic glass business by 7.2 percentage points to 8.4%, which is the main factor for the decline of the company’s performance.
The sales volume of electronic glass increased rapidly, and the non core business continued to be stripped. In 2021, the company’s light guide sector and other electronic glass products expanded well. According to the annual report data, in 2021, the company sold 123000 square meters of electronic glass, with a year-on-year increase of + 94.31%, and the unit price increased to 894 yuan / square meter year-on-year, reflecting the gradual high-end product structure. However, due to the overall small scale, the gross profit margin of the company’s electronic glass is still negative (but significantly narrowed year-on-year). In addition, the company continued to peel off non core components and power business, and the related business revenue continued to decline significantly in 2021. The glass of non core business also reduced the company’s financial expenses and thickened the company’s profits to a certain extent.
Focus on asset injection and cost improvement of the original film in 2022. According to the company’s announcement on March 24, the company is still in the process of issuing additional shares to acquire the original assets of the parent company. We believe that after the completion of the above matters, the company will change from a single photovoltaic glass deep-processing enterprise in the past to an original film + deep-processing integrated enterprise. According to the previous acquisition asset evaluation report, the profitability of the original film assets of the parent company is good. At the same time, the original film supply of the company is expected to be more stable after the acquisition. Therefore, the profit center and competitiveness of the company are expected to be greatly improved. After the integration, The company is expected to take the lead in the BIPV market in the future.
Investment advice
Considering that the price of 2021h2 photovoltaic glass is under pressure, resulting in a low price starting point in 2022, the price assumption is reduced. The revenue in 2022 / 2023 is correspondingly reduced to RMB 3665 / 4648 million (Original: RMB 4458 / 5420 million), the net profit attributable to the parent company is reduced to RMB 196 / 306 million (Original: RMB 373 / 481 million), and the EPS forecast is reduced to RMB 0.98/1.54 (Original: RMB 1.88 / 2.42). It is estimated that the revenue in 2024 will be 5.787 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 425 million yuan, and the EPS will be 0.5 billion yuan from 2022 to 202498 / 1.54/2.14 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 27.33 yuan on March 30, 27.81/17.76/12.79xpe. Considering that the company’s original film asset injection may make a full annual contribution in 2023, with reference to the valuation of comparable BIPV and photovoltaic glass enterprises, the company’s 2023 profit forecast 21xpe valuation is given, and the target price is correspondingly reduced to 32.34 yuan (Original: 57.40 yuan). Considering that the company’s competitiveness is still expected to be further improved after the original film asset injection, and the growth space of the industry is still good, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips
The demand is lower than expected, the cost is higher than expected, the asset injection is slower than expected, and there are systemic risks.
