\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 012 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 3.108 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 36.74%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.49%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 324 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129110%.
The annual new orders increased significantly year-on-year, and the performance of 21q4 increased significantly month on month: the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly year-on-year in 2021, mainly benefiting from the high boom of the semiconductor equipment market and the demand for domestic substitutes. The net profit deducted from non parent company is less than the net profit attributable to parent company, which is mainly due to the large changes in fair value profits and losses caused by investing in the equity of non listed companies in 2021 and obtaining government subsidies. In terms of revenue by product, the revenue of etching equipment in 2021 was 2.004 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.44% and a gross profit margin of 44.32%; The revenue of MOCVD equipment was 503 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.53%, which was due to the downstream market and the unconfirmed revenue of miniledmocvd equipment scale orders signed in 2021, but the gross profit margin of MOCVD equipment reached 33.77%, a year-on-year increase of 15.12pct. In terms of orders, the amount of new orders signed by the company in 2021 reached 4.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.5%. The company’s orders are full, indicating strong downstream demand. From the perspective of Q4 single quarter, the operating revenue of Q4 single quarter was 1.035 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.86% and a month on month increase of 41.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 470 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 118.60% and a month on month increase of 224.14%. Q4 revenue continued to improve month on month, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly month on month.
CCP etching grows steadily, and ICP etching opens the second growth curve: in terms of etching equipment, the company’s etching equipment has been applied to the world’s advanced 7 nm and 5 nm integrated circuit processing and manufacturing production lines. In 2021, the company produced and shipped 298 cavities of CCP etching equipment, with a year-on-year increase of 40%; 134 cavities of ICP etching equipment were produced and delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 235%. In terms of CVD equipment, the company’s capacity of CVD tungsten process equipment applied to metal interconnection has been able to meet the needs of customers’ process verification, and the products are being verified with key customers. In addition, the company has also established an EPI equipment R & D team. Through basic research and adopting the technical feedback of key customers, the company has formed the main intellectual property rights and innovative design scheme of pretreatment and epitaxial reaction chamber. In addition, the company is planning to develop key equipment such as ALD and ale, and the category of semiconductor equipment is expected to continue to be enriched in the future.
Mini led brings new growth opportunities for MOCVD equipment: in terms of MOCVD, the rapid growth of mini LED market will bring new growth opportunities for the company. In June 2021, the company officially released the MOCVD device prismo Unimax for mass production of high-performance Mini LEDs ®， The equipment has the advantages of high wavelength uniformity and high yield. In addition, the equipment can process 164 4-inch or 72 6-inch epitaxial wafers at the same time. With the advantages of efficiency and yield, the company has received more than 100 batch orders from many leading customers in China within half a year after the release of the equipment. In March 2022, the company received 52 cavity prism Unimax from Jiangxi zhaochi Semiconductor Co., Ltd ® MOCVD equipment purchase order. Looking forward to the future, with the rapid growth of mini led downstream market, the company’s MOCVD equipment is expected to usher in new growth opportunities.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.303 billion yuan, 5.733 billion yuan and 7.291 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.096 billion yuan, 1.385 billion yuan and 1.834 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the “Buy-A” investment rating.
Risk tip: downstream demand attenuation risk, market competition intensified risk, domestic substitution is less than expected.
