\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 960 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) )
The annual report of Bluebird was released on January 31, 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 530 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.2% and a year-on-year increase of 36.6% after deduction of non-profit; In Q4 alone, the revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 155 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.2%.
Core view: the performance is in line with expectations (the net profit range attributed to the parent company was 485 ~ 555 million). The company has improved the layout of three core businesses, with explosive growth of emerging businesses, good overall payment collection, and pressure on gross profit margin, mainly due to ① changes in business structure; ② Raw material cost pressure; ③ Take the initiative to compete and speed up market clearing. Looking forward to 2022, on the one hand, during the expansion period of business scale, the revenue side maintains a high growth trend, the pressure on the expense side is released, and the company is expected to usher in an inflection point of profit margin; On the other hand, with the successive implementation of management policies and product R & D, energy storage fire protection is expected to usher in the first year of development and contribute new performance increment. The company is an undervalued fire safety electronic faucet, with a corresponding valuation of only 10x in 2024.
The three major tracks in the parking lot will amplify the competitive advantage, and the new and old businesses will shine together: in 2021, the overall production and operation of the company will be stable, the layout of the three main business areas of general purpose, emergency evacuation and industrial fire control will be completed, the revenue end will achieve 53% high growth, and the three-year planned revenue target of 5 billion is expected to be completed ahead of schedule in 2022. By business:
(1) the general fire fighting business grew steadily, and the sub brands contributed to the performance increment: in 2021, the revenue was 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.8%, accounting for 64% of the total revenue. Among them, ① the "Jiuyuan" brand accelerated the regional expansion, and the business scale increased by more than 50% year-on-year; ② The international layout achieved results and achieved overseas revenue of RMB 330 million. During the reporting period, the company completed the acquisition and integration of finsecur, France, and achieved overseas market coverage in Canada, France, Spain and the United States. In terms of gross profit margin, the sales gross profit margin of GM is 39.8%, with a year-on-year rate of - 2.1pct. In the market clearing stage, the company takes improving the market share as the core strategic goal, and the gross profit margin level is generally controllable.
(2) the emergency evacuation business achieved explosive expansion and completed multi brand layout: in 2021, the revenue reached 660 million, a year-on-year increase of 266.2%, accounting for 17% of the total revenue. The company has formed three brand patterns of "Bluebird", "leftward" and "Zhongke Zhichuang". Under the background of market expansion, the company's product and brand advantages are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of business. At present, the second generation Crested Ibis chip of bluebird is gradually covering all product lines, and the effect of cost reduction and quality improvement has been shown. In 2021, the gross profit margin of this sector was 36.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.6pct.
(3) the industrial sector has achieved a breakthrough from 0 to 1, and energy storage fire fighting is expected to become a new performance growth point: in 2021, the revenue will reach 36 million, with a year-on-year increase of 225.7%, accounting for 0.9% of the total revenue. Many projects in the fields of traditional steel, metallurgy and new energy storage won the bid and realized revenue recognition. The implementation of the project will form an endorsement for the company's products and fire protection solutions. The subsequent business scale is expected to maintain rapid expansion. Compared with the industrial fire prevention and alarm products of Yijie and noan environment, the gross profit margin of this sector is expected to increase to more than 60%. At the same time, the industrial product system continues to be improved, and the miniaturized and multi-dimensional energy storage module level solution is expected to be launched this year, helping the company deepen the structure pattern covering traditional industries, rail transit pan industries and new energy storage fields.
(4) gas business and intelligent fire fighting: automatic fire extinguishing and gas detection products achieved revenue of RMB 330 million and 120 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34% and 36% respectively. At the same time, the company closely follows the trend of the integration of fire, safety and materials in the industry. By the end of 2021, more than 21000 units and 1.3 million online points of " Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) cloud" had been launched.
Changes in business structure put pressure on Profitability: in 2021, the gross profit margin of sales was 37.14%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.05pct, mainly due to ① changes in business structure: the proportion of emergency evacuation revenue increased from 7% to 17%; ② The price of industrial raw materials rises, and the cost side is under pressure; ③ The gross profit margin of the general sector fell. In the future, the market pattern will continue to be optimized. With the iteration and introduction of Crested Ibis chips, technology upgrading, refined management and other measures, the gross profit margin will be controlled as a whole.
Good performance in cost control: in 2021, the net profit margin of sales was 14.35%, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.04pct, and only a year-on-year decrease of 1.59pct after deduction of non-profit. During the period, the expense rate was 21.5%, basically unchanged year-on-year. The expense rates of sales, management, R & D and finance were + 1.36, -0.55, -0.64 and -0.19pct year-on-year respectively. The increase in the sales expense rate was mainly due to the increase of personnel in consolidated financial statements, industrial fire protection, intelligent fire protection division and long-term new outlets.
Under the background of real estate tightening, the collection performance is good: the operating net cash flow is 195 million yuan, which is different from the net profit of 530 million yuan. However, from the collection end, the cash received from selling goods and providing labor services is 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.8%, higher than the income growth rate; From the expenditure side, the company's prepayments and inventories increased by about 435 million compared with last year. On the one hand, it is due to the expansion of order scale. On the other hand, in order to cope with the rising cost and ensure the supply of raw materials, the company has taken measures such as increasing goods preparation and locking long orders. On the whole, the company has good payment collection and excellent business quality.
Three catalysts for revenue, profit and energy storage in 2022: ① product expansion: the general field has strong structural growth power due to new growth and coexistence of stock market; At the same time, the company has arranged the emergency evacuation section and actively entered the field of industrial fire protection and household fire protection. Under the policy east wind, the company is still in the period of rapid expansion of scale. ② Profit improvement: in terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of emergency evacuation business is close to 37%, and the negative impact of future business structure changes on gross profit margin is limited. Mainly considering the rhythm of increasing the market share of the company under the optimization of competition pattern, it is expected that the gross profit margin will be controllable as a whole in 2022 and is expected to stabilize and recover; In terms of net interest rate, the initial investment of new business layout (products, teams and channels) has been basically completed. In the future, refined internal control will improve per capita energy efficiency. It is expected that the sales expense rate will show a downward trend, the amortization of equity incentive expenses has been completed by about 67%, and the pressure on management expense rate has been relieved. In general, it is expected that the net profit margin attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 15% in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 1PCT. ③ Energy storage and fire fighting: the overweight of fire management policy forces the upgrading of industrial demand, and energy storage and fire fighting is expected to usher in the first year of development. With the implementation of the company's new product R & D, the "detection + fire fighting" solution is expected to contribute new performance increment.
Investment suggestion: considering the smooth progress of the company's business layout and accelerating the optimization of the industry pattern, we slightly raised the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.207 billion yuan, 6.918 billion yuan and 9.116 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.8%, 32.9% and 31.8% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 781 million yuan, 1.092 billion yuan and 1.526 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 47.4%, 39.7% and 39.8% respectively. EPS is 2.24, 3.13 and 4.37 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 19, 13 and 10 times respectively. Maintain the "Buy-A" rating, and the six-month target price is 67.2 yuan.
Risk warning: market competition intensifies; The expansion of emergency evacuation market is less than expected; Less than expected industrial business expansion; The collection is less than expected, resulting in the increase of bad debts; Poor management of major shareholders has dragged down listed companies.
