Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Huachang Securities: Baijiu leader long line of value space has emerged
Baijiu Q1 index outstanding indicators, channel performance is healthy, strong performance support, although the short-term focus of the market is Moutai’s price decline on the demand boom and channel confidence, but the leading line of the long line value space has emerged, Moutai report acceleration, certainty scarcity, product line more abundant, and mutual trust with the capital market to enhance, as the first choice. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) it is suggested to pay attention to the introduction and implementation of targeted market policies. In the long run, the 1000 yuan price band is still the largest brand, and Laojiao continues to recommend it. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the verification of individual stocks in the quarterly report, focusing on Fenjiu, Huijiu Gujing, sujiu Yanghe and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . Expanding liquor enterprises are concerned about the willingness to maintain high elasticity in the decline of valuation.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : confidence in the Baijiu industry, Moutai’s official business platform reboot is of great significance
For Baijiu industry to maintain confidence, Moutai official business platform restart is of great significance. Recently, the epidemic has been repeated. The market has some concerns about the lack of liquor consumption scenarios, the slowdown in movement and the inventory reduction. We believe that the main reason is that Baijiu is the main reason for Baijiu off-season. Considering that the inventory of the main liquor is basically controlled at a reasonable level after the Spring Festival, the pressure is relatively controllable. The main liquor companies have not lowered the annual sales target.
In addition, the recent decline in the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai has caused concern. We judge that it is due to the impact of the short-term epidemic and the news of the launch of Maotai’s new e-commerce platform. We believe that the impact of short-term epidemic will not change the trend of Baijiu industry development.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : after the Baijiu sector stabilizes, it is optimistic that some of the oversold targets will be restored .
In the short term, we will continue to look at the overall restoration opportunities of the Baijiu sector. In the long run, the upward trend of the industry will not change, and the future will still be structured. Some Baijiu companies continue to issue 2021 annual reports, performance forecasts or 1-2 month business data reports in 2022, including Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) and other four quarter results lower than market expectations, while Moutai’s price down, causing market concerns.
On the whole, in recent years, the performance of Maotai’s wholesale price and stock price has been gradually decoupled. In the long run, Maotai’s brand value and business model determine that it is still a very scarce deterministic high-quality target in the market; We expect that the price of sanfei will continue to fall to about 2500 yuan, so there is no need to worry too much. Recently, the Baijiu sector has been callback for short term by the outflow of foreign capital, repeated epidemic and overall callback, and adjusted the overall elastic space. But the industry is in the off-season, and the pressure of epidemic and cost is relatively small. The probability of the industry in 2022 is still a structural market. Individual stocks should be preferred from the perspective of fundamentals, valuation and expectation, and continue to be optimistic about high-end liquor Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and regional sub high-end leaders (such as Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , etc.).
open source Securities: Baijiu still optimistic outlook! Ranking priority high end Baijiu and head top Baijiu enterprise
We can see that two factors in the food and beverage industry are changing beyond expectations. One is that the epidemic continues to affect demand; Second, the price rise of bulk raw materials brought cost pressure, which affected the share price of food and beverage sector. The Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu sector is affected by these two factors less. On the one hand, liquor demand is strong, especially high-end and sub high end liquor. When the epidemic is effectively controlled, Baijiu liquor usually has compensatory consumption. On the other hand, Baijiu gross profit rate is more related to price and product structure, and raw material price has little effect. Nationwide, most Baijiu enterprises returned money in the first quarter, and there were great differences between the dynamic sales areas, strong and less epidemic areas. Baijiu Baijiu is the first priority. We have a strong demand for toughness and low cost. We can still make optimistic prospects in the future. We will rank the top Baijiu and the top liquor enterprises.
East Asia Qianhai Securities: high-end Baijiu anti cyclical and strong performance growth certainty is the first choice for now.
Recently, Baijiu is mainly disturbed by emotional faces, and the industry is not worried in the long run. In March, the epidemic was repeated, deepening the market’s concern about the limited consumption of sub Baijiu and Baijiu liquor. The overall valuation of the industry is in a reasonable allocation interval, and the high Baijiu’s anti cyclical and strong performance growth certainty is the first choice. The Spring Festival dynamic sales show that the strong demand trend of high-end wine remains unchanged, and the dynamic sales of maowu Luzhou are all good, and the inventory level remains low.
At present, high-end liquor enterprises have become the main tone to control the volume and price, and strengthen channel control to lay a solid foundation for good performance growth in 2022. Sub high end Baijiu is still the fastest growing sector, and the strongest growth sector is the first to choose strong wine companies. On the product side, the upgrading of product structure of sub high-end liquor enterprises drives the increase of ton price, and the nationalization and large volume of large single products in the sub high-end price band of the card position is the driving factor of performance. On the channel side, the channel reform keeps pace with the times, and the in-depth distribution tends to integrate with the manufacturer’s 1 + 1 model; Channel mode and product differentiation are more tailored to local conditions; Liquor enterprises have bound the interests of dealers to enhance their enthusiasm; Refer to the quota system of famous liquor for flow single product to strengthen the stability of price sector; Group buying and special dealers have also become the layout trend.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : Baijiu’s performance has a robust leading liquor enterprise reform and continues to promote
The consumption season is less affected by epidemic situation, Baijiu performance has robustness, leading liquor enterprises reform continues to advance. The continued interpretation of the epidemic in some parts of the country has triggered market anxiety, which is the main reason for the Baijiu sector’s share price pullback. However, due to the traditional consumption off-season from March to April, dynamic sales accounted for less than 10% of the whole year. We believe that the short-term impact of the epidemic on the performance of liquor enterprises is limited.
Recently, Maotai’s marketing reform has been continuously promoted. We expect that the company will increase its digital marketing and use its own e-commerce platform and other channels to improve the transparency and fairness of wine purchase. At the same time, this is also an important part of the “five in one marketing method” 1 proposed by the company Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao have gradually entered the stage of controlling goods and supporting prices, which reflects the company’s brand confidence, and the company continues to strengthen the accurate delivery of channels and reduce the number of problem dealers and terminals Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) successively raised the dealer payment price and terminal supply price of Guojiao, which are being implemented gradually all over the country.
In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to companies that are less affected by the epidemic and are expected to make a good start in the first quarter, such as Gujing, kouzi, Fenjiu, etc.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : the main line of Baijiu industry’s future development remains unchanged, with emphasis on high-end five
When the fog gradually dispersed, the compound growth rate of liquor enterprises in the past 20192021 years was traced. The above mentioned Baijiu enterprises’ compound income growth rate was 11.39%, and it still maintained a steady growth of double-digit. It fully showed that even if there were negative external factors, the endogenous growth momentum of Baijiu industry remained strong. Most of the liquor enterprises that have published the annual report forecast can also maintain rapid growth.
According to the 2021 Baijiu notice and the 1-2 month operation in 2022, combined with the data of Liquor Enterprises above Designated Size, the two main trends of liquor industry development, such as head concentration and consumption upgrading, are still continuing. From the historical experience, the long-term development trend of the industry will not be broken by short-term external factors. Therefore, we think that the main line of Baijiu industry will remain unchanged in the future. We will mainly recommend five high-end Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on.
Wan Lian Securities: high-end liquor growth certainty higher Baijiu Baijiu growth is still
Baijiu Baijiu has a higher growth certainty, and the growth of the second high-end liquor is still enough. We should pay attention to the opportunity of high-end and secondary baijiu. 2) Beer: the process of high-end beer is accelerated, the performance of industry leaders is bright, and the long-term good trend is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to high-end beer leaders; 3) Popular food: the demand for popular food is rigid, and the cost drives the price increase logic of the popular food industry, which is expected to be continuously verified. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of popular food such as condiments and leisure snacks.
