Capital flow analysis

Focus on the banking sector

The total net outflow of large funds was 27.2 billion yuan, 400 million yuan less than the previous trading day. Among the 134 industry sectors of Shenwan secondary industry (2021) counted by wind financial terminal, 28 sectors had net inflow, and the number of net inflow sectors was 1 more than that of the previous trading day. The top five sectors of net inflow are: chemical pharmacy 945 million yuan, traditional Chinese medicine 736 million yuan, agrochemical products 728 million yuan, aviation equipment 542 million yuan and chemical raw materials 523 million yuan; The five major sectors before the net outflow are: -21.86 billion yuan in real estate development, -18.46 billion in consumer electronics, IT billion yuan in -16.50 services, and -15.81 billion in semiconductor, Baijiu -14.68 billion.

It is suggested to pay attention to the banking sector. The specific analysis is as follows:

1) the central economic work conference stressed that the economic work in 2022 should be “stable and make progress while maintaining stability”, and required to “actively launch policies conducive to economic stability”. Infrastructure investment, real estate deviation correction and double carbon economy in 2022 are expected to drive wide credit.

2) with steady growth, the banking sector is expected to form a DDM numerator denominator resonance market. At the molecular end, under the wide credit, the bank’s revenue is compensated by volume, and the bad pressure on the cost end is relieved; At the denominator end, the improvement of economic expectation leads to the improvement of risk assessment.

3) recommendation: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) .

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