Macroeconomic
The total profits of industrial enterprises rebounded, but the structure deteriorated. From January to February, the total profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size picked up, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, far lower than 34.3% in 2021 and 18.2% of the two-year compound growth rate. The high base and fast cost growth are the main factors affecting the sharp year-on-year slowdown of their profit growth. There is also obvious industry differentiation in profit growth. The profit growth industry is concentrated at the upstream and downstream ends of the industrial chain, and the midstream end is obviously under pressure.
General asset market
In the stock market, the global stock market fluctuated and differentiated, A-Shares continued to fluctuate and fall, Hong Kong stocks corrected and fluctuated, and US stocks fluctuated upward. In terms of A-shares, A-shares continued to adjust, regulators raised market confidence, and real estate and non bank financial sectors rose against the market trend; In terms of Hong Kong stocks, due to the long-term geopolitical disturbance factors still existing, superimposed on the Fed’s interest rate hike, Hong Kong stocks fell back and moved towards fluctuation adjustment; In terms of US stocks, the repeated “hawkish” remarks of Fed officials did not hide the heat of the market. Affected by the good employment data of the United States, US stocks fluctuated upward;
In the bond market, although the expectation of LPR interest rate reduction failed, the reverse repo increased to maintain the liquidity at the end of the quarter, and the overall trend of China bond yield curve was flat. In terms of US bonds, hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve disturbed the market, the selling pressure continued to increase, and the yield of US bonds reached a new high; In terms of Chinese bonds, although the expectation of LPR interest rate reduction failed, the reverse repo increased to maintain the liquidity at the end of the quarter, and the overall trend of the yield curve of Chinese bonds was flat;
Commodity market: crude oil inventories fell sharply, adding to Russia’s demand that Europe use ruble trading to raise energy export prices, and international oil prices fluctuated upward; The NATO summit statement promoted the renewed tension in the geographical situation, and the international gold price remained high.
Risk tips
The economy accelerated downward; The policy is not as expected; The epidemic broke out repeatedly.
