Key investment points
In our previous report "focus on the potential" black swan "in 2022: how to deal with the new round of China's epidemic, the portfolio" on January 26, we suggested that China may face a more severe epidemic prevention and control situation than when delta spread in the second half of 2021, and some positions should be allocated to the direction of epidemic prevention and control; In the report "whether the market has pricein- paid attention to the potential" black swan "(II) in 2022" on March 14, it is mentioned that the current round of epidemic has just begun and has not reached a climax, "dynamic clearing" policy will not be abandoned. At present, according to our previous prediction, we still believe that the epidemic situation or the potential risk that needs the most attention this year, China's epidemic prevention and control may still be difficult to relax in the short term.
I. continue to pay attention to this round of epidemic -- potential "black swan" in 2022
The "dynamic clearing" policy adopted by China essentially depends on the game between the ability of epidemic prevention and control and the ability of virus transmission. Since the spread of delta mutant virus in the second half of 21 years, the epidemic situation in China has shown the characteristics of many points, wide range and frequent occurrence, which means that to some extent, the transmission ability of mutant virus may impact the upper limit of the ability of China's prevention and control system. Omicron Ba, which is still rampant in the surrounding areas and has higher transmission power Type 2 has also begun to spread around the world, and China's foreign defense input pressure is still large.
The severity of prevention and control measures may exceed expectations. Both Xinhua news agency and the State Council have repeatedly stressed "unswervingly adhering to dynamic zero clearing". This year, more stringent prevention and control measures have been taken and the mutation epidemic may be normalized, which may have an impact on economic circles such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.
II. What is the impact of the epidemic on various industries?
(1) what is the impact of the epidemic on various industries in the first quarter of 2020, when the epidemic situation and prevention and control situation are the most severe? From the perspective of GDP, covid-19 epidemic has a greater negative impact on the tertiary and secondary industries. By industry, the degree of impact: accommodation and catering construction wholesale and retail trade transportation and warehousing manufacturing Real Estate leasing and Commerce agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery Finance information technology. On the production side, measured by capacity utilization, the degree of impact: manufacturing utilities mining. On the demand side, the overall impact of the epidemic on social zero is large, the impact on service consumption is greater than commodity consumption, and the impact on optional consumption is greater than mandatory consumption.
(2) what is the impact of this round of epidemic on the economy
Although the coverage and intensity of the current round of epidemic isolation and control measures are still lower than that in the first quarter of 2020, the intensity has been significantly higher than that in the previous rounds of epidemic. The impact of high-frequency data on the epidemic is the first. Since March, the city's transportation and cross regional flow have decreased significantly, and the optional consumption with a high proportion of offline consumption such as cars has been affected to some extent. The impact on the production side is still controllable, and there is a certain disturbance to the freight logistics. Benefiting from the prevention and control experience and the increase of vaccine coverage, the impact of this round of epidemic on production activities is still controllable, and there is a certain disturbance in freight logistics.
III. investment suggestions
1. If the overall epidemic situation continues and the prevention and control measures are not relaxed, the sectors related to the epidemic situation, especially the specific drugs and vaccines from 0 to 1, are the core main line, which can be arranged on a bargain hunting basis;
2. With the deduction of the epidemic situation, the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and the expectation of steady growth in the market is expected to increase. We can pay attention to the central enterprises and real estate leaders, as well as the green power sector powered by the central finance.
Risk warning: the representativeness of historical data is limited, the high-frequency data has a certain time lag, the epidemic spread exceeds expectations, and the prevention and control measures exceed expectations
