Macro categories:
Ukrainian President zelens said on the 27th that Ukraine is ready to seek neutrality and reach a compromise on the issue of Donbas, but there is no progress on the issue of "demilitarization" and "de Nazism", and asked Russia to cease fire and withdraw troops first. Affected by the news, oil prices fell and European stocks opened slightly higher. In terms of energy, the group of seven refused to settle natural gas in rubles, and Russian officials said that natural gas exports to Europe might be interrupted. At present, the situation in Ukraine and Russia still has a significant impact on energy prices. On the one hand, the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still repeated, the fourth round of negotiations between the two sides has not made significant progress, the Russian military action has not stopped, NATO countries have also continuously increased their arms assistance to Ukraine and continuously increased sanctions against Russia; On the other hand, the shortage of crude oil supply under the Ukrainian Russian conflict has not been made up for, the progress of Iran's nuclear negotiations is slow, and OPEC countries are not willing to accelerate the production increase plan. In addition, as of March 25, the 10y-2y interest rate spread of US bonds further narrowed to 0.18%. Historical experience shows that the upside down of this index indicates that the US economy has entered the recession stage, and the Federal Reserve will end the interest rate hike cycle in about half a year.
In terms of commodities, although some large and medium-sized cities have further relaxed the real estate policy, there are still some deviations from the current monthly and high-frequency economic data, and the real estate and infrastructure with high correlation with commodities have not yet made significant efforts. From March to now, the performance of real estate financing is still weak, the issuance of credit bonds and ABS of real estate enterprises is significantly depressed year-on-year, and the issuance of new special bonds for infrastructure in the middle of last year is not satisfactory. At the micro level, according to our latest research, affected by the epidemic Affected by snowfall, weak real estate and slow commencement of engineering projects, the downstream construction decreased year-on-year for two consecutive weeks and began to decline slightly month on month; In addition, the government is still increasing the policy of ensuring the supply and price stability of commodities. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth; Moreover, supported by factors such as dry weather and global inflation transmission, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention. USDA's global cotton production forecast for three consecutive months and continuously raised demand expectations. We also tracked that the La Nina index has increased recently; At the precious metals level, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time, superimposed high inflation in the United States, and maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
