Environmental protection viewpoint: the 14th five year plan for modern energy system was printed and distributed
The plan mainly expounds China’s energy development policies, main objectives, tasks and measures. It is the overall blueprint and action program for accelerating the construction of a modern energy system and promoting high-quality energy development during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The plan points out that the main objectives of modern energy system construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period include:
Energy security is more secure and powerful. By 2025, China’s annual comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal, the annual output of crude oil will rise and stabilize at 200 million tons, the annual output of natural gas will reach more than 230 billion cubic meters, the total installed capacity of power generation will reach about 3 billion kilowatts, the energy reserve system will be improved, and the independent energy supply capacity will be further enhanced. Significantly improve the safety and security of key urban power users.
Remarkable achievements have been made in the transformation of low-carbon energy. Carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP have decreased by 18% in five years. By 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20%, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%, the level of electrification will continue to improve, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach about 30%.
The efficiency of the energy system has been greatly improved. Remarkable results have been achieved in energy conservation and consumption reduction. The energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased by 13.5% in five years. The allocation of energy resources is more reasonable, the scale of nearby and efficient development and utilization is further expanded, and the transmission and distribution efficiency is significantly improved. The coordinated operation capacity of electric power is continuously strengthened. By 2025, the proportion of flexibly regulated power supply will reach about 24%, and the response capacity of power demand side will reach 3% ~ 5% of the maximum power load.
The ability of innovation and development has been significantly enhanced. The level of new energy technology has been continuously improved, the construction of new power system has made phased progress, the innovation ability of safe and efficient energy storage and hydrogen energy technology has been significantly improved, and the popularization and application of pollution and carbon reduction technology has been accelerated.
Specialized and new viewpoint: focus on the two investment mainlines of domestic substitution and “carbon neutralization”
We will strengthen the development of “refined and specialized” small and medium-sized enterprises in 2018, and strive to fill in the “short and specialized” key areas of “refined and specialized” small and medium-sized enterprises in 2018. The cultivation of specialized and special new enterprises focuses on the “four basic” fields of industry or the ten key industrial fields of manufacturing power. At present, 4922 specialized and special new “little giant” enterprises have been cultivated, including 361 A-share listed companies. Provinces and cities have successively issued policies to vigorously support the cultivation of specialized and special new enterprises at the national, provincial and municipal levels, and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to increase R & D efforts to achieve fine and high-quality development. Considering the strength of policy support and the urgency of demand, it is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines: 1) domestic substitution: there is a problem of high import dependence in some “neck” areas of manufacturing industry. Under the background of trade friction, the demand for domestic substitutes such as core parts is becoming stronger and stronger. Made in China 2025 proposes that 70% of core basic parts and key basic materials will be independently guaranteed by 2025. With the encouragement of policies, the R & D process of alternative products with core competitiveness is expected to accelerate and drive the rapid growth of relevant enterprises. 2) “Carbon neutralization”: the 30 / 60 target is determined. It is expected that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the installed scale of photovoltaic and wind power and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate, driving the rapid growth of the demand for components and equipment in the whole industry chain.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the short-term and medium-term demand of some segments of the environmental protection industry has increased, and the overall valuation of the industry is slightly lower than the average value of recent one year, so bargain hunting can be arranged; There is an urgent need for the cultivation of “specialized, special and new” enterprises and strong policy support, which is conducive to the rapid development of enterprises in the industry. Based on this, we maintain the “recommended” rating of environmental protection & specialized, special and new industries.
Suggestions for attention this week: Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) (buy), Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shenzhen Yanmade Technology Inc(688312) , Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976)
Risk warning: the progress of policy implementation is less than expected; The order growth rate of listed companies was lower than expected; Changes in tax preference system; The progress of M & A is less than expected; Repeated impact of the epidemic; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
