Events
On March 24, the first round of centralized land supply in Xiamen in 2022 successfully sold all 9 plots, with a transaction floor area of 611100 square meters and a total price of 15.365 billion yuan, a transaction rate of 100% and a premium rate of 7%.
Main points
Lower the threshold of restrictions and stabilize the land acquisition expectations of real estate enterprises. Among the 9 plots sold this time, 2 plots in Siming District and 2 plots in Huli district were sold by auction in the way of "limited house price, limited land price, fixed allocation construction, fixed quality + lottery" in 2021; Two plots in Jimei District and three plots in Tong'an District were sold by auction in the way of "limited house price, limited land price, fixed quality + lottery", and the restriction of "fixed allocation construction" was cancelled. In addition, in 2021, the starting price of the third batch of centralized land supply Liupai plot and the Hubin plot in Siming District decreased slightly from 2.94 billion to 2.93 billion, the sales restriction time decreased from 10 years to 8 years, and the fixed allocation area decreased from 19190 square meters to 14880 square meters. Lowering the limit threshold will help alleviate the capital pressure of real estate enterprises and improve land acquisition profits.
With the improvement of land quality, the competition of land plots on the island is fierce. Among the 9 lands sold in Xiamen, 5 are on the island of Xiamen and 4 are off the island. The real estate enterprises on the island actively signed up to participate in the auction, and finally traded at a premium, with a maximum premium rate of 15%; Three plots of land in Tong'an District outside the island have won at the base price. The plots with less favorable geographical conditions have great market competition pressure after entering the market, the collection speed is slow, and the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in the auction is not high.
State owned enterprises actively picked land, and Jianfa harvested 3 pieces of land. Jindi won a land with 1.46 billion yuan, with an average floor price of 46795 yuan / m2 and a premium rate of 15%; Jianfa won 3 parcels of land with 9.44 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 4% - 12%; CNOOC won one land in Jimei District with 640 million yuan, with an average floor price of 24335 yuan / m2 and a premium rate of 15%. State owned and central enterprises have actively helped Xiamen local auction by picking land at a premium.
Investment advice
Recently, many places have introduced new policies to stabilize market expectations. Xiamen has lowered the threshold, the local auction heat has rebounded, and the plots on the island have been traded at a premium. With the further deepening of urban policy reform, it is not ruled out that more cities will introduce relevant policies.
In the short term, the credit environment still needs to be improved. Credit bond investment should be more cautious, focusing on the head real estate enterprises with better cash flow or the state-owned central enterprises with higher qualification. Dollar bonds should wait until after the exchange peak in the first half of the year; In the medium and long term, brand real estate enterprises with the advantages of financing and land acquisition will have obvious advantages in the future competition. Related targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and sustainable land acquisition in first and second tier cities, such as green city China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the "two concentration" land policy and can obtain land through diversified ways, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc; (3) The construction of indemnificatory rental housing has gradually opened the demand for agent construction, and deeply cultivated the green city management holding (9979. HK) built by the government for many years.
Risk tips
Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; The sales of commercial houses were lower than expected.
