White goods: the growth rate of air-conditioning double line sales picked up month on month, and ice washing stabilized month on month. From January to February in 22, the growth rate of online sales of air conditioners rose from - 13.3% in 21q4 to + 14.94%, and the decline rate offline narrowed from - 21.9% to - 12.6%. Although sporadic epidemics occurred in many places in China, the omni-channel sales of air conditioners improved; The growth rate of online sales of refrigerators decreased from 3.9% in 21q4 to - 0.9%, and the offline decline further expanded; The online growth rate of washing machines has improved, with a slight increase in the same ratio, and the offline demand has further contracted. The average price of household electricity rose year-on-year, but fell slightly month on month.
Kitchen appliances: the sales volume of integrated stoves has increased rapidly, and there is a large space for category development. Smoke stoves: in terms of sales volume, benefiting from the recovery of second-hand housing sales at the beginning of the year, the growth rate of online sales volume of smoke stoves increased from January to February of 22 years, and the decline of offline channels was relatively stable. The real estate policy tends to be stable, the penetration rate has room to improve, and the smoke stove market still has growth power. Integrated stove: both volume and price rise, continuing the high boom. From January to February of 22, the continuous volume and price of double lines rose simultaneously, of which the online / offline sales volume was + 5.9% / + 13.6% respectively. We expect that by 2035, the annual sales volume of integrated stoves will reach about 9 million units, which still has more than twice the growth space compared with 2.8 million units in 21 years.
Small household appliances: the demand for small kitchen appliances has improved month on month, and clean appliances are waiting for new products to promote growth.
1) kitchen small electricity: the growth rate of main categories has changed from negative to positive month on month, and the performance of just needed kitchen small electricity is better. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of major brands from January to February has increased. We believe that after last year's weak demand and downward growth, the growth rate of small kitchen electricity has gradually picked up, and the demand is expected to improve month on month.
2) cleaning appliances: the first quarter is the off-season for the sales of cleaning appliances, and the floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) growth rate is better than that in the same period last year; The overall growth rate of the washing machine still maintained a high double-digit growth after the base effect gradually faded; Self cleaning is a clear development direction. In the first quarter, various brands launched more cost-effective styles than the original flagship level, which we believe will help the industry to achieve volume growth in the future.
3) massage personal care: the cumulative growth rate of Feike razor from January to February has increased significantly, while the growth rate of hair dryer, hair ball trimmer and other categories is under pressure Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) transaction amount growth continued the previous downward trend, and the growth rate of massage equipment was slightly lower than that of the overall category; The growth rate of massage equipment and , etc. slowed down, but the growth rate of main massage equipment and products remained the same.
Investment suggestion: looking forward to the first quarter of this year, we judge that under the condition that the overall macro-economy is still under pressure, it is difficult for the household appliance sector to form the main line opportunity of sector nature in the short term. It is optimistic that the valuations of most core home appliance stocks have returned to historical lows, with limited room for decline and waiting for the profit cycle to rise. Possible inflection point signals: 1) the epidemic control is reduced, and some demand for household appliances may be deferred to the second quarter; 2) Demand has improved, and the upcoming 618 promotion is worthy of attention; 3) The improvement of real estate sales and the shift to flat is an important signal.
Target selection: 1) stocks with relatively low valuation in 18 years, such as [ Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ], [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ], [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ], etc; 2) After experiencing the ups and downs caused by the epidemic in 20 / 21 years, the operation of small household appliances has gradually returned to normal, but the valuation has been adjusted to a low level. If the income can return to growth after the abnormal base, the valuation will be repaired to some extent, such as [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ], [ Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ], [ Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) ], [ Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) ]; 3) The penetration rate of emerging products has increased, such as [ Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) ] and [ Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) ] in the integrated stove and [ Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ] and [ Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) ] in the floor sweeper.
Risk warning: real estate market, exchange rate and raw material price fluctuation risk; New product sales are less than expected; The calculation is subjective or deviates from the actual value.
